Metals: Gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a high of $3,897. In the short term, this smooth momentum is supported by concerns about the US government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The price of gold has risen 47% since the beginning of the year, a remarkable run attributable to central bank purchases, increased interest in ETFs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Copper prices continued to rise in London. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange is currently trading at $10,490 per ton, an increase attributed to supply disruptions, mainly in Indonesia and Chile.
Agricultural products: Grains are back on a downward trend in Chicago, a trend they have not strayed from for quite some time. Corn and wheat contracts all closed lower at 420 cents per bushel for corn and 513 cents for wheat (December 2025 contracts). Soybeans continue to suffer from the trade war with China, prompting China to turn to other suppliers. Favorable weather conditions have accelerated corn and wheat harvests in the United States, putting downward pressure on prices. In addition, the USDA noted in its latest report a decrease in corn stocks compared to the previous year, but the expected record harvest should help replenish stocks.
Macroeconomics
Macro: Although the first Friday of the month is traditionally devoted to the publication of the employment report, this year investors are left empty-handed. No data is available due to the shutdown that is shaking up US government agencies. To kill time, traders are therefore focusing on ancillary data to get an idea of the labor market. The ADP survey shows significant signs of a slowdown, pushing bond yields down in anticipation of further monetary easing. Despite this, the 2-year remains above a key support level of 3.50%, which has not prevented the S&P 500 from setting new record highs. Be careful, gold is now overbought, while the dollar index remains above 96.20. As these two markets are correlated, we will be closely monitoring movements in the greenback to avoid getting caught out on the yellow metal.
Crypto: September is statistically the worst month of the year for Bitcoin: over the last twelve years, it has posted an average return of -3.08%. But in 2025, the cryptocurrency defied expectations, with an increase of +5.38%. October, on the other hand, is historically a statistically prosperous month: +20.63% on average since 2012, making it the second-best month of the year behind November (+46% on average). And October is off to a flying start: in just a few days, Bitcoin has already gained +5.5% and is back above $120,000, just $4,500 shy of its all-time high in August. This week's surge is being driven in particular by BlackRock, which has increased its exposure to Bitcoin in its Global Allocation Fund by 38%. The American giant now holds $66.4 million via its IBIT ETF, representing an allocation of 0.4% of the fund's $17.1 billion in assets (compared to 0.25% in the first quarter). This is enough to spark enthusiasm among crypto investors. Other
cryptocurrencies are also off to a flying start in October: ether (ETH) is up 8% and flirting with $4,500, Solana (SOL) is up 10% to $230, and XRP (XRP) is up 6.5% to around $3.
The budget impasse in the United States, the latest convulsion of the Trump presidency, has not prevented stock markets from maintaining their upward trend. Next week is expected to remain quiet on the corporate earnings front, ahead of a clear pickup in activity the following week.
On the macroeconomic side, the shutdown is expected to continue blocking the publication of official U.S. statistics. However, no major indicators were scheduled for release. Several speeches by Fed officials are planned. In principle, the freeze on federal spending should not prevent them from delivering useful messages to investors, who still anticipate another rate cut on October 29.
Have a great weekend, everyone,
BRANDAS D.
$WHEAT.FUT$GOLD$OIL... Show More
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Fri Nov 14 2025 00:34:31 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
