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📣 The Daily Breakdown from Bret Kenwell @Bretman, eToro's investment and Options Analyst 📣 🗓️ Monday’s TLDR — June 24, 2024 🤔 Bonds are breaking out. Could it be a second-half story? 🏀🚢 Earnings from Nike and Carnival are in focus this week. 🤖 Apple and Meta are reportedly in talks about an AI partnership. ✳️ Weekly Outlook ✳️ How is it already the last week of June — and thus, the last week of the second quarter? Despite the low volumes, it shouldn’t be a boring one. That’s as we have at least five Fed speakers on deck, some key economic reports, and even a few notable earnings reports. Monday is pretty tame, but on Tuesday we’ll get a consumer confidence number before the open, along with earnings from $CCL. After the close, $FDX (FedEx Corporation) will report. On Wednesday, $GIS (General Mills Inc), $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.), $BB (BlackBerry Limited), and $LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co. ) will report earnings, among others. Thursday morning will bring the third and final revision to the Q1 GDP report. We’ll also get earnings from $WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc), $MKC (McCormick & Co Inc), and $NKE. Finally on Friday, we’ll get the PCE report, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This report will surely have an impact on the $SPX500, $BTC and other assets that have proved sensitive to rate-cut expectations. ✳️ The setup — $TLT ✳️ We have spent a lot of time this year talking about interest rates and the expectation for lower rates over the next six to 12 months. When the Fed lowers rates, it brings yields down. Bond prices and yields have an inverse correlation, meaning yields go down as bond prices go up and vice versa. While not all parts of the yield curve will move in identical fashion, the general idea is that bonds could have some upside from here if rates really do start to move lower in the second half of 2024. 📈📊📉 We’re looking at the TLT, the most traded long-term government bond ETF. It surged into year-end, but then topped out and made a series of lower highs, as downtrend resistance continued to push it lower. (Chart as of the close on June 21, 2024. Source: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView). Now though, the TLT has broken out over downtrend resistance and is back above all of its daily moving averages. As long as TLT stays above the $88 to $90 area, bulls can maintain momentum. However, a break below $88 would be bad price action, potentially shifting momentum into the bears’ favor. ✳️ Options Bulls can utilize calls or call spreads to speculate on further upside, while bears can use puts or put spreads to speculate on the gains fizzling out and TLT rolling over. Remember, the risk for options buyers is tied to the premium paid for the option — and losing the premium is the full risk. For those looking to learn more about options, consider visiting the eToro Academy. 🔗 to Academy = www.etoro.com/en-us/academy/options/ 🔎 📚 Are your investments in line with today's news? Check your portfolio on eToro and eToro Options to make sure you aren't missing any opportunities. 👀 What Wall Street is watching 👀 $AAPL (Apple) — Apple and $META (Meta Platforms Inc) are reportedly in talks to integrate Meta's AI technology into Apple's ecosystem, potentially rivaling Microsoft's advancements in AI. This partnership could significantly enhance Apple's AI capabilities across its devices. $SRPT (Sarepta Therapeutics Inc) — Shares surged 30% after the FDA approved expanded use of its gene therapy, Elevidys, for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. While the stock was only up slightly over the past three months, Serapta shares were up about 28% in 2024 before Friday’s rally. $TGT (Target Corp) — Target and $SHOP (Shopify Inc.) shares are inching higher in Monday’s pre-market trading session. Target will use Shopify to offer products on its Target Plus platform, which is an online marketplace that allows third-party retailers to sell on Target’s online platforms. Disclaimer: Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. Content, research, tools, and stock symbols displayed are for educational purposes only and do not imply a recommendation or solicitation to engage in any specific investment strategy. All investments involve risk, losses may exceed the amount of principal invested, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (etoro.tw/3Dr98GK) prior to engaging in options trading.