Alberto Poli
Dear Copiers and followers welcome back. ๐™๐™€๐˜ฟ ๐™๐™Š๐™ˆ๐˜พ: ๐™‰๐™ค ๐™๐™ช๐™จ๐™ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™จ, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™Š๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ค๐™  ๐™„๐™จ ๐™Ž๐™๐™ž๐™›๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%โ€“4.50% range for the fourth consecutive time. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the cautious approach: no immediate moves, but constant attention to evolving economic dataโ€”especially inflation, employment, and consumer spending. ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š ๐˜พ๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™จ? ๐™Š๐™ฃ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™„๐™› ๐˜ฟ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™– ๐˜ผ๐™ก๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™จ The updated dot plot chartโ€” the Fedโ€™s internal forecast on future ratesโ€”still signals two cuts in 2025, but reveals growing division among FOMC members: 7 members foresee no cuts, 8 expect two, and only 2 support three cuts. Just one vote prevented the median projection from shifting toward an even more hawkish stance. ๐™๐™š๐™ซ๐™ž๐™จ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™˜๐™ง๐™ค๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ž๐™˜ ๐™‹๐™ง๐™ค๐™Ÿ๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ: ๐™ˆ๐™ค๐™ง๐™š ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ, ๐™‡๐™š๐™จ๐™จ ๐™‚๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฉ๐™ The new economic estimates for 2025 reflect a deteriorating outlook: โ€ข Forecasted growth: 1.4% (down from 1.7%) โ€ข Core inflation: 3.1% (up from 2.8%) โ€ข Unemployment: 4.5%, slightly higher Powell issued a clear warning: tariffs imposed or reinstated in recent months will impact prices and could further slow the economy, complicating the Fedโ€™s job. Businesses, he noted, are already beginning to pass higher costs on to consumers. Markets remain cautious with a Fed still on pause but less accommodative in the long term. No dovish pivot, but also no aggressive signals: the stagflation scenario (low growth + high inflation) is no longer a marginal risk. ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ข๐™š๐™ง ๐™Ž๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐™Ž๐™˜๐™ง๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ฎ U.S. retail sales data (-0.9% in May, the second consecutive decline) showed a significant slowdown in consumer spending, especially for cars, fuel, and dining out. The buying surge in Marchโ€”driven by anticipation of tariffsโ€”now seems over. A more cautious mindset prevails: fewer impulse purchases, more price-conscious decisions. ๐™‚๐™š๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™˜๐™จ: ๐™๐™š๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ˆ๐™ž๐™™๐™™๐™ก๐™š ๐™€๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ, ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™„๐™ข๐™ฅ๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ The international situation remains tense: direct confrontation between Israel and Iran has intensified, with mutual bombings and heavy casualties in Iran. The U.S. is considering possible intervention, while the U.K. has expressed readiness to provide military support. The conflict is pushing oil prices higher and fueling a moderately risk-off climate: gold is near all-time highs, and the dollar is slightly strengthening. Trump has escalated his rhetoric: Tehran must evacuate immediately, and Khamenei must surrender. Within the next 24โ€“48 hours, Trump is expected to decide on potential direct involvement in the war. Several actors have already warned of the consequences of direct U.S. involvement. Russia warns the United States against joining Israel's war with Iran: โ€œThis would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences.โ€ Hezbollah has also recently issued an alert to the U.S. ๐™‚๐™ค๐™ก๐™™ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™๐™ค๐™˜๐™ช๐™จ: ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™Ž๐™–๐™›๐™š-๐™ƒ๐™–๐™ซ๐™š๐™ฃ ๐˜ผ๐™จ๐™จ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™๐™š๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ง๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™Ž๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™ฉ The World Gold Council revealed that 95% of global central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 43% ready to boost their holdings directly. None anticipate selling. Gold is becoming a strategic pillar of foreign reserves, seen as: โ€ข A hedge against inflation and instability โ€ข A geopolitical tool in a multipolar world โ€ข A reliable alternative to traditional currencies (primarily the dollar) In Q1 2025, central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold. While the dollar remains dominant, 73% of central banks expect its share in global reserves to decline over the next five years. ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™ก๐™ช๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ: ๐˜พ๐™–๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™‰๐™š๐™ฌ ๐˜ฝ๐™–๐™ก๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š๐™จ The Fed is waiting for more solid signals on inflation, consumption, and employment before taking action. However, trade and geopolitical tensions may further complicate the landscape, making a return to expansionary monetary policy more difficult. In the meantime, markets are navigating between mixed data and global risks. Gold continues to strengthen its central role, while the dollar is slowly losing influence in the global monetary system. THank you for your support. $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $OIL (Oil (Non Expiry)) $NSDQ100 (NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry))
Like CommentShare
null
.