Alberto Poli @pino428: "Dear Copiers and followers welcome..."

Italy

Dear Copiers and followers welcome back. 𝙁𝙀𝘿 𝙁𝙊𝙈𝘾: 𝙉𝙤 𝙍𝙪𝙨𝙝 𝙤𝙣 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙊𝙪𝙩𝙡𝙤𝙤𝙠 𝙄𝙨 𝙎𝙝𝙞𝙛𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%–4.50% range for the fourth consecutive time. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the cautious approach: no immediate moves, but constant attention to evolving economic data—especially inflation, employment, and consumer spending. 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝘾𝙪𝙩𝙨? 𝙊𝙣𝙡𝙮 𝙄𝙛 𝘿𝙖𝙩𝙖 𝘼𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙨 The updated dot plot chart— the Fed’s internal forecast on future rates—still signals two cuts in 2025, but reveals growing division among FOMC members: 7 members foresee no cuts, 8 expect two, and only 2 support three cuts. Just one vote prevented the median projection from shifting toward an even more hawkish stance. 𝙍𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙟𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨: 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙇𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙂𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝 The new economic estimates for 2025 reflect a deteriorating outlook: • Forecasted growth: 1.4% (down from 1.7%) • Core inflation: 3.1% (up from 2.8%) • Unemployment: 4.5%, slightly higher Powell issued a clear warning: tariffs imposed or reinstated in recent months will impact prices and could further slow the economy, complicating the Fed’s job. Businesses, he noted, are already beginning to pass higher costs on to consumers. Markets remain cautious with a Fed still on pause but less accommodative in the long term. No dovish pivot, but also no aggressive signals: the stagflation scenario (low growth + high inflation) is no longer a marginal risk. 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙢𝙚𝙧 𝙎𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙐𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙎𝙘𝙧𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙮 U.S. retail sales data (-0.9% in May, the second consecutive decline) showed a significant slowdown in consumer spending, especially for cars, fuel, and dining out. The buying surge in March—driven by anticipation of tariffs—now seems over. A more cautious mindset prevails: fewer impulse purchases, more price-conscious decisions. 𝙂𝙚𝙤𝙥𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙨: 𝙏𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙞𝙙𝙙𝙡𝙚 𝙀𝙖𝙨𝙩, 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙄𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙘𝙩 The international situation remains tense: direct confrontation between Israel and Iran has intensified, with mutual bombings and heavy casualties in Iran. The U.S. is considering possible intervention, while the U.K. has expressed readiness to provide military support. The conflict is pushing oil prices higher and fueling a moderately risk-off climate: gold is near all-time highs, and the dollar is slightly strengthening. Trump has escalated his rhetoric: Tehran must evacuate immediately, and Khamenei must surrender. Within the next 24–48 hours, Trump is expected to decide on potential direct involvement in the war. Several actors have already warned of the consequences of direct U.S. involvement. Russia warns the United States against joining Israel's war with Iran: “This would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences.” Hezbollah has also recently issued an alert to the U.S. 𝙂𝙤𝙡𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙁𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙖𝙛𝙚-𝙃𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝘼𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙩 𝙍𝙚𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙣𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙥𝙤𝙩𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 The World Gold Council revealed that 95% of global central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 43% ready to boost their holdings directly. None anticipate selling. Gold is becoming a strategic pillar of foreign reserves, seen as: • A hedge against inflation and instability • A geopolitical tool in a multipolar world • A reliable alternative to traditional currencies (primarily the dollar) In Q1 2025, central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold. While the dollar remains dominant, 73% of central banks expect its share in global reserves to decline over the next five years. 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙡𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨: 𝘾𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙉𝙚𝙬 𝘽𝙖𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙨 The Fed is waiting for more solid signals on inflation, consumption, and employment before taking action. However, trade and geopolitical tensions may further complicate the landscape, making a return to expansionary monetary policy more difficult. In the meantime, markets are navigating between mixed data and global risks. Gold continues to strengthen its central role, while the dollar is slowly losing influence in the global monetary system. THank you for your support. $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $OIL (Oil (Non Expiry)) $NSDQ100 (NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry))

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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices Inc

OIL

NSDQ100

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