I wanted to provide a quick ad hoc video update ahead of the next livestream, which is likely to be the following Wednesday rather than this Wednesday. Last week was a busy earnings period, with roughly half the portfolio reporting within 48 hours. May has been volatile so far, with most of the drawdown coming from two areas: Cogent and energy.
$CCOI (Cogent Communications Holdings Inc) was the largest contributor after a sharp post-earnings selloff. My view is that the market is focusing too much on headline revenue weakness and not enough on what is happening beneath the surface. The legacy business remains healthy, the higher-quality revenue streams continue to develop, and the low-margin Sprint-related revenue is being reduced. That creates messy headline numbers, but potentially better economics over time.
I also want to touch on $DUOL (Duolingo) and the broader AI/software narrative. The market is still treating many software and platform businesses as if AI is purely disruptive, but Duolingo’s latest numbers suggest a more balanced picture. Engagement, paid subscribers, conversion and gross margins are all moving in the right direction, which supports the view that AI may strengthen certain platforms with proprietary data and strong user engagement rather than simply destroy them.
On energy, recent weakness looks more like sentiment and profit-taking than a change in the underlying thesis. Headlines around possible de-escalation in the Middle East can move prices in the short term, but physical supply chains, insurance risk and shipping behaviour do not normalise overnight. Overall, this update is about separating perception from reality, reviewing the key earnings data, and explaining how I am thinking about positioning from here.
youtu.be/Pv2FWAuumX4?si=STy2LWPB6kkgq8Sm... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Hi Robert, just curious on your thoughts on getting back into ENPH? They recently announced an AI data-center power platform built around a distributed solid-state transformer architecture (IQ SST) designed specifically for AI data centers and targeting high-voltage DC systems (800VDC / ±400VDC). The... Show More
.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Sun Jul 12 2026 20:48:17 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
