pino428 @pino428: "𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚..."

Italy

𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠. The fight against inflation seems not to be over and returns to the centre of macro data to be monitored carefully. The December data on CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) although in line with expectations, highlight inflationary pressures that are still present. CPI: Inflation Still Above Pre-Pandemic Levels with the CPI Headline: +2.9% YoY (+0.4% MoM), acceleration of 14 basis points compared to November. Core CPI: +3.2% YoY (+0.2% MoM), slight deceleration but still double the pre-pandemic average. The main factors that are keeping these values high are Energy, Food and core services. Although some elements are reducing their impact, it seems too early for a decisive change in downward direction. Producer prices also seem to have regained momentum with a Headline PPI: +3.3% YoY (+0.2% MoM and a Core PPI increasing by 3.5% YoY. We remind you that producer prices are not reflected immediately to consumer prices; on average, it takes 6 months. 𝙎𝙏𝙊𝘾𝙆 𝙈𝘼𝙍𝙆𝙀𝙏 The latest bullish sessions offset the stock market retracement that began in mid-December. Macroeconomic data highlights a still strong US economy. The labour market remains resilient, with low unemployment and stable aggregate income growth. Corporate profits are revised upwards. Furthermore, The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US soared to 105.1 in December 2024, the highest since October 2018. This new optimism is marked by greater confidence in the new Trump administration, which has driven this index higher. Also significantly increasing the percentage of small companies that believe it is a good time to expand their business. We could therefore find ourselves in a moment of possible expansion for the American economy and where certain shares could benefit from this economic regime, such as: technological, material and energy and financial. However, interest-sensitive sectors such Utilities and Real Estate should be avoided. 𝘽𝙊𝙉𝘿𝙎 𝙈𝘼𝙍𝙆𝙀𝙏 Despite the cuts made by the FED, bond yields, instead of falling, continued to rise. 10-year US Treasuries hit 4.8%. Why this movement? Bonds are simply pricing in a more inflationary scenario than what the FED wanted us to believe in recent sessions. Food, energy and the new president's possible political protections could push inflation higher, leading the FED to interrupt the cycle of cuts or even increase them. So also pay attention to the Term Premium. The premium on long-term Treasury bonds is rising to the highest levels in a decade, signaling that investors are demanding higher yields to hold long-dated bonds. This consequently translates into a greater demand for returns on equity securities as well. To have this extra return, it must also be supported by an increase in adequate earnings. 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙠 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙖𝙨 𝙖𝙡𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙨𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩. $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $KLAC (KLA Corporation) $ETH $ASML (ASML Holding NV - ADR)

4 Mentioned

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

KLAC

KLA Corporation

ETH

Ethereum

ASML

ASML Holding NV - ADR

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