๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ ๐๐ช๐ฉ๐ก๐ค๐ค๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ: ๐๐๐ง๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐ค๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ง
๐๐๐ก๐๐ค๐ข๐ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐ค๐ช๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐จ๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ค ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ค๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐ค๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ! ๐ฅ
We are starting the year on the right foot: this first week of trading is delivering solid results, with markets showing surprising resilience despite headlines being dominated by geopolitical events of historic proportions.
Here is whatโs happening beneath the surface of the markets:
- ๐๐๐ "๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ฏ๐ช๐๐ก๐ ๐พ๐๐จ๐" ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ค๐ก๐ก๐๐งโ๐จ ๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ
The arrest of Nicolรกs Maduro and Trump's statements briefly rattled sentiment, but the "flight to safety" effect on the Dollar was short-lived.
โข ๐๐๐ค๐ง๐ฉ/๐๐๐๐๐ช๐ข ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ข: The Dollar remains supported in the very short term by favorable seasonality (January is historically a strong month) and solid US data (Q3 GDP at +4.3%). However, in the medium-to-long term, the Dollar is showing signs of weakness: the "debasement" theme is gaining traction, and the potential appointment of a Fed Chair closer to Trumpโs positions later this year could trigger further declines.
๐ข๏ธ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐ฎ: Oil is Looking Ahead Despite the political noise, the crude oil market is ignoring immediate tensions. A massive return of Venezuelan oil will require years of investment. In its latest report, the EIA forecasts a reduction in global prices due to rising global inventories throughout 2026. Brent is expected to drop to an average of $55 per barrel as early as the first quarter, stabilizing at those levels. However, the decline wonโt be a "free fall": OPEC+ production policies and continued inventory builds in China will act as a parachute for prices.
๐๏ธ ๐๐๐: Financial Plumbing in Action Interestingly, on New Year's Eve, the Federal Reserve injected over $74 billion in liquidity into the system via the Standing Repo Facility.
โข This is neither a bailout nor money printing: it is pure "financial plumbing" to ensure banks had the necessary cash for year-end balance sheet reporting.
โข The Macro Signal: The system is holding up, but reserves are starting to run thin after months of monetary tightening. The current stability is a delicate balance that we will monitor closely.
๐๐ช๐ง๐ค๐ฅ๐: Vigilant Waiting In the Eurozone, German inflation is trending down (2.1%), but itโs not enough to change the narrative. The ECB remains "hawkish": without a sharp deterioration in growth, significant rate cuts in 2026 will be hard to justify.
๐พ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ค & ๐๐๐๐จ:
Starting with a Bang 2026 is starting under the best possible auspices for crypto. After a period of consolidation in December, inflows into Bitcoin and Altcoin ETFs have resumed with force:
โข +$671 million in inflows in the last week alone.
โข Although BTC ETFs saw a 35% drop in capital flows in 2025, significant inflows were seen in Ethereum, XRP, and Solana during the same period.
โข Institutional adoption in Germany and Canada is accelerating significantly.
๐๐ฃ ๐๐ช๐ข๐ข๐๐ง๐ฎ: The market wants to move forward, ignoring geopolitical risks for now to focus on the strength of risky assets. We remain confident for the start of this quarter, while keeping a close eye on global liquidity and geopolitical dynamics.
๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฎ ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฉ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ค๐ฃ๐! ๐
$EURUSD$OIL$BTC$ETH... Show More
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