Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 20 ᴀᴘʀɪʟ 2026 Many..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 20 ᴀᴘʀɪʟ 2026 Many investors have compared the current Middle East crisis with 2022, when markets initially recovered after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine before falling much further. But there are several important differences this time. First, the energy shock has so far been smaller. Oil prices have risen, but remain well below the levels seen in 2022. Natural gas prices in Europe are only a fraction of where they were during that crisis. Second, inflation is starting from a far lower base. In 2022, inflation was already running near 6% in both the US and Europe before the war shock, forcing central banks into aggressive rate hikes. Today, inflation is much closer to target, which gives policymakers more flexibility. Third, the global economy has remained resilient so far. US employment data and European business surveys continue to suggest expansion rather than recession. In past major oil shocks, economic data often weakened immediately. That does not mean risks have disappeared. First, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected. Markets are not currently pricing in a prolonged energy shortage. If the Strait remains closed, oil prices could move well beyond previous peaks. Second, the economic damage seen so far may not prove temporary. Short periods of weaker growth can sometimes trigger wider problems in labour markets, credit markets or consumer confidence. If that happens, a mild slowdown could turn into recession.   Finally, central banks may not be as relaxed as investors hope. If higher energy prices keep inflation elevated, rate cuts could be delayed or policy tightened again. Markets can often look through temporary inflation shocks, but not tighter monetary policy. Overall, the balance of risks appears neutral for now. Positioning is not stretched and could rise further if the situation improves. On the other hand, past episodes of Trump backing down may have made investors too complacent about that pattern repeating. My preference is to lean towards being invested once the situation appears to have stabilised, so the remaining cash in the portfolio has now been deployed. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 The portfolio is again fully invested in stocks. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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