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Friday ended on a turbulent note for global markets. European equities saw sharp declines, partially reversed when US markets opened, but both regions still finished lower (S&P 500 -0.1%). The weakness was driven by renewed uncertainty around US monetary policy and rising yields across Europe.
Yields climbed most notably in the UK after rumours that the government may avoid raising income taxes in the budget scheduled for 26 November. In the US, Trump announced on Friday that tariffs on products such as coffee and beef will be reduced following signs of consumer frustration over high prices. Negotiations appear to be progressing better than many expected, suggesting tariffs may end up slightly lower β although threats of higher tariffs remain. Over the weekend, Trump also expressed support for a Senate proposal to impose tariffs on countries trading with Russia and criticised the EU for delaying promised tariff cuts and regulatory easing.
Japanβs Q3 GDP, released this morning, declined after a strong Q2 but came in slightly better than expected. Asian markets are mixed with small declines in China and Japan. US futures are pointing higher while Europe is slightly down. Japan has also sent an envoy to China to ease tensions after comments made regarding Taiwan.
After an unusually quiet period for data, US statistics will begin to reappear this week β starting with a heavyweight: September labour market data on Thursday. Consensus expects job growth to accelerate to +50,000 from +22,000 in August, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. However, disruptions in data collection mean several October datasets, like CPI and unemployment, will likely never be published. Even the data that does appear for October β and possibly November β will be less reliable than usual.
The FOMC minutes from the late-October meeting arrive on Wednesday. Some recent hawkish commentary has reduced market confidence in a December rate cut, with expectations now sitting at just -10 bps. Many Fed officials have referenced the idea that βin thick fog, you slow down,β but how this translates into policy remains unclear. If uncertainty about the economic outlook is high, a lower rate β not a higher one β would seem logical. The majority at the Fed does not currently share that view.
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$SPX500$NSDQ100$EURUSD$JPN225... Show More
Clear update, Eric. The divergence between EU and US markets is getting really interesting. Thanks for the insights! π... Show More
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Tue Dec 09 2025 11:36:27 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
