GenesisGains @GenesisGains: "Hello everybody, There are times..."

Denmark

Hello everybody, There are times where the market is too predictable, not that the markets has got a reason to be predictable, but the options and the dip buyers makes it easier to figure out, especially recently, as everybody are buying the dips and the market is stuck in between a put and a call wall. Take away the options, which is legalized gambling, and we would see a completely different picture and charts as we do now. So what has that got to do with trading? . Pretty much nothing, but they still call it trading for us to believe that we actually are trading fair values and the $NSDQ100 and the $SPX500 is where they are because of logical reasons. Then add some stock buybacks, to the equation and you have a complete mess. If you can´t find anything new to do, then you buy your own stock, limiting the supply and up we go again. Don´t get me wrong I am not complaining, as I have been in this game too long and I know what eventually will happen. The big boys will let us gamble and play in the sandbox until we have put ourselves into a position, which has been orchestrated by the big boys, which also played along helping us to have fun. So we had fun, the stage was set and $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $MSFT (Microsoft) and all the other actors entertained us, and when one got tired and had to lay down, the next actor came along and kept the show going. We had our bread and wine, and then "trading" sets in. When that is going to happen is of course always the million $USDOLLAR question. Reality is a beach but it always catches up. For now bad news is good news, like we saw yesterday with the PMIs, that was the show part, the spike in treasuries is reality, so we put that in a box and hide it in the closet labeled "things we don´t like" but are happy to ignore. In the meantime, The "Hindenburg Omen" reared its ugly head, the yield curve is getting closer to uninversion, debt is going through the roof, both government and household, delinquency rates are moving to record highs, unemployment is ticking up, slowly , but of course there is still the question about the 730k jobs which were over-reported, $MCD (McDonald's) $SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) and other companies catering to the middle and lower class are screaming bloody murder, $NKE (NIKE) $WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc) $HM-B.ST (Hennes & Mauritz AB, H & M ser. B) are crashing and 50% of Americans actually think we are already in a recession. But it all just a game, so who cares? . What most traders ( not so much investors ) fail to understand about how the game is played, is that there are 2 rules. 1. The retail traders are the cash cows. 2. The market makers is the milkman . They will play with 2 very important ingredients. Greed and FOMO. Meaning they will keep the narrative that everything is just fine and don´t worry about the high prices and that the country is drowning indebt and consumers are gutted, just keep buying at the top and you will be rich. So everybody are making money right now, as the market just keep rising. And who is paying for this party? the market makers. So they are nice guys right ? wrong!. They are just waiting for the right moment when all are positioned in the same direction, and then they will pull the plug. You are all guests in the big casino and we all know that the casino never lose. So how can the market continue rising with all the problems lurking behind each corner? easy. All it takes to move the market is money and as long as you will keep buying something, then it will keep rising. So how can it go wrong? As I said, as long as the market makers play along, everything is fine. But when they cash in and let the retailers and hedge funds to keep things going, then the music stop playing and you will see that the chairs are all occupied by the big boys. As I said , then they can keep things going for a while still as there are plenty of factors still playing a role, but with a market already nervous and unsettled, well knowing in the back of their mind that things are pretty much too good to be true, then realize that that is exactly how it is. Yes AI is currently hot cakes and rightly so, but even the stars need a rest once in a while In the meantime the market makers made us forget all about the other players, giving us the worst breadth and the lowest number of companies in the indices going up v those which are going down. So while we focus on the stars, the big boys are sinking the rest of the market, and suddenly they will pull the plug on the stars and go for the beaten down healthy companies. You think this will not happen? It always happens and it always will. Now, as I said then I am not trying to make you doubt your decision making, I am just saying, that you need to make up your own mind and not let the brainwashers rule your game. Have a great day all !. Mike