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capimatt
capimatt
Matthew Richards
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Matthew Richards
Matthew Richards
United Kingdom
2mo
📊 Weekly Update | Sniper Strategy Hi all 👋 It's fair to say the last few months have been challenging. This week was another reminder that bear markets rarely feel comfortable, regardless of how diversified a portfolio may be. What's been particularly frustrating is that weakness hasn't been isolated to one area. Bitcoin has struggled. Gold has struggled. Defensive stocks have struggled. Even some traditionally lower-volatility assets have come under pressure. The only real bright spots recently have been Nvidia and ITA, both of which continue to benefit from powerful long-term structural trends. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📉 Market Environment We're now seeing what increasingly looks like a genuine bear market environment. Risk appetite remains weak and investors continue to reduce exposure across multiple asset classes simultaneously. Current concerns include: • Higher-for-longer interest rates • Slowing economic growth • Geopolitical uncertainty • Ongoing volatility in commodity markets • Reduced liquidity and institutional risk-taking One of the defining features of bear markets is that correlations often rise. Assets that normally diversify each other begin moving in the same direction. That's largely what we've experienced over recent months. When gold, defensive healthcare, crypto and equities all struggle together, it can feel like nowhere is safe. Historically, however, these periods have also created some of the best long-term opportunities. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🔄 Portfolio Changes Over the last few weeks I've made a significant portfolio rotation into Bitcoin. The average cost basis has been reduced substantially, with the majority of purchases taking place around the $60,000 area. This isn't a short-term trade. It's a deliberate cycle allocation. My view remains that Bitcoin offers the strongest long-term risk/reward opportunity available within the portfolio and current market conditions provided an opportunity to increase exposure at significantly lower prices than we saw during the previous cycle highs. Could there be further downside? Absolutely. Bear markets rarely ring a bell at the bottom. But long-term investing is about positioning before the recovery becomes obvious, not after. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📊 Portfolio Positioning Current core holdings: • Bitcoin ($BTC) • McKesson ($MCK) • Gold ($GLD) • Nvidia ($NVDA) • iShares Aerospace & Defence ETF (ITA) While MCK has been a disappointment in recent months, encouragingly we're now beginning to see signs of stabilisation and recovery. The underlying business remains exceptionally strong and I remain constructive on its outlook over the coming quarters. Meanwhile: 🪙 BTC remains the primary long-term growth engine 🛡 MCK remains the defensive quality allocation 🥇 GLD remains a monetary hedge 🤖 NVDA provides AI and technology exposure ✈️ ITA provides exposure to the ongoing global defence spending cycle The themes themselves have not changed. Only the prices have. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🎯 Keeping Perspective I think it's important to repeat something I've said many times before: This portfolio is not designed to maximise returns over the next month. It isn't designed to avoid every correction. It isn't designed to chase whatever happens to be working right now. The objective is to compound capital across full market cycles. That means accepting periods where performance is uncomfortable. It means making allocations when sentiment is poor. And it means focusing on where assets may be in 3–5 years rather than 3–5 weeks. That's exactly what I'm doing today. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📈 Current Snapshot • This Month: -5.22% • YTD: -6.17% • 2-Year Return: +18.32% • 5-Year Return: +98.56% • Annualised Return: +11.7% Not the numbers any investor wants to see in the short term. But zooming out, the longer-term picture remains considerably stronger than the recent headlines might suggest. As always, the focus remains on patience, discipline and positioning for the next phase of the cycle. Thanks to everyone continuing to follow along and copy the strategy. Have a great week all 👍 — Matt (@capimatt) P.S. Now is a good time to potentially add capital in order to maximise recovery and returns over the next 12-18 month. I may add some capital soon and distribute across assets. I will let you know when this happens, and you can then decide whether to add more capital too, or just hold existing positions.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
1 Mentioned
capimatt
capimatt
Matthew Richards
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