Neza Molk @Nezatron: "𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲..."

Slovenia

𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐬 📘 Markets ended January with heavy volatility and strong rotation among asset classes. Central bank decisions, major earnings reports, political headlines, and extreme moves in commodities all played a role. Even though headline indices moved only modestly, the dynamics of the market shifted meaningfully. 𝐔.𝐒. U.S. equities finished the week mixed, and January performance showed a clear split between large-cap and small-cap stocks. 𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 (𝐅𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡) $SPX500: +0.6% $NSDQ100: +0.2% $DJ30: +1.1% $RTY: +3.7% The key theme in January was rotation. Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, even as attention stayed focused on mega-cap technology. Value-oriented sectors performed better than growth, while health care was the weakest area after sharp losses in insurance stocks. Economic data sent mixed signals. Consumer confidence dropped sharply, with the Conference Board index falling to 84.5, its lowest level since 2014. This suggests households are becoming more cautious about jobs and income. At the same time, weekly jobless claims remained relatively stable, pointing to a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than breaking down. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with two policymakers voting for a cut. Chair Jerome Powell described the economy as solid and policy as not overly restrictive. Late in the week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, strengthening the U.S. dollar and triggering a sharp sell-off in gold and silver. One of the biggest drops in history. Silver was down 35% at some point. For me, the most striking detail is that silver is still up 12% this year. Markets reacted strongly to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh’s nomination strengthened the U.S. dollar, which hurt assets like gold and silver that usually benefit from a weaker dollar. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 European markets ended the week slightly higher overall, though performance differed by country. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.4%. Italy and the UK posted solid gains, while Germany and France finished lower. Earnings optimism helped offset concerns around trade and geopolitics. The macro backdrop continued to improve slowly. The eurozone economy grew 1.5% in 2025, beating expectations, supported by stronger investment, consumption, and exports. Fourth-quarter growth came in at 0.3%, in line with previous momentum. Business and consumer confidence improved at the start of 2026, signaling cautious optimism. Germany lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.0%, citing delays in implementing fiscal and economic measures, but this still represents an improvement compared with last year’s near-stagnation. 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 $MSFT (Microsoft) Reported strong earnings, but the stock fell sharply as investors focused on very high AI-related capital spending and limited near-term returns. $META (Meta Platforms Inc) Outperformed after showing that AI investments are already translating into higher advertising revenue. $AAPL (Apple) Posted a record earnings quarter driven by strong iPhone demand and better-than-expected sales in China, though rising component costs weighed on margins. UnitedHealth Group Shares dropped sharply after proposed Medicare Advantage rate increases came in far below expectations, dragging down the entire health care sector. General Motors Rose after strong earnings, a dividend increase, and a large share buyback highlighted strength in traditional industrial companies. Verizon Had its strongest week in years after improving subscriber trends and raising free cash flow guidance. Tesla Shares declined as revenue growth slowed and investors focused on margins and near-term demand rather than long-term projects. ServiceNow Fell despite beating earnings expectations, reflecting concerns that AI tools could disrupt subscription-based software models. $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) Delivered very strong guidance as demand for memory chips improved, supported by data centers and AI-related storage needs. SoFi Technologies Reported record user growth and higher revenues, but the stock fell as investors stayed cautious on profitability. Southwest Airlines Rose sharply after improving its profit outlook, supported by operational changes and pricing power. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 - U.S. jobs report and labor market data - Developments around the Fed Chair nomination and confirmation process - Whether small-cap outperformance continues - Stabilization in commodities after extreme January volatility - Earnings reports from Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Arm, Uber, Palantir, Eli Lilly and many more. January showed that markets are becoming more selective. Headline index moves were modest, but rotation by size, sector, and earnings quality mattered far more than the averages suggested. Trade safe! Nezatron 💛

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.