Nabil Sifo @NabilSifo: "𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞: 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞..."

Germany

𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞: 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐂𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 Dear copiers and followers, The past week has been one of the toughest for our portfolio since April and the so called “Tariffs Panic.” But this time, the pressure isn’t about tariffs, it’s a mix of factors: the US Government shutdown, liquidity stress, and a sharp selloff in tech and AI stocks. In this update, I’ll break down the main drivers behind the recent volatility, explain how these forces are impacting our positions, and share the steps I’m taking to protect your investments. I’ll also touch on fund allocation and my outlook for the current market environment. The market is extremely volatile right now, with growth stocks and small/mid-cap stocks moving double digits in a single day. 𝐒𝐨, 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲? 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐞𝐥𝐥-𝐎𝐟𝐟 After weeks of circulating fear about the high valuation of AI stocks especially names like $PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.) and $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) , Michael Burry tweeted for the first time in years, hinting at an AI bubble. That alone shook investor sentiment, since Burry is famously the guy who predicted the housing bubble back in 2008. Shortly after, SEC filings revealed that his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, had taken massive bearish positions: put options on Palantir worth nearly 60% of his portfolio, along with large puts against Nvidia. These disclosures amplified the panic and fueled a wave of selling in tech stocks, even though many companies continued to deliver strong earnings. An example from our portfolio is $META (Meta Platforms Inc) , which got beaten down despite its growth story continuing and fundamentals remaining very strong. The sell-off in tech and AI-related companies affects the broader market because they are heavily represented in indices like $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 . 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 In simple terms, there’s less cash in the system right now. Investors tend to wait and not rush to buy. And some institutions that need liquidity rush to sell. So, when panic selling happens (not us 😉), sellers don’t find enough buyers. They’re forced to lower prices drastically to exit positions, which means sharper drops in stock prices. An example from our portfolio is the drop in $CELH (Celsius Holdings Inc.) . The company delivered good earnings, but its core brand Celsius showed a small deceleration in growth. That should not have triggered a 24% drop in one day and another 7% the next. Liquidity stress amplified this move. 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐞: Liquidity stress is a wide and advanced financial topic. I’ve oversimplified it here, but I’ll leave some resources in the comments for finance pros and those who want to dig deeper. 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 The government shutdown has now become the longest in history, creating political uncertainty. And we know uncertainty is not what investors love, markets always react negatively to it. Please note: the shutdown is the least impactful factor here, but I mention it because it ties into the next part of this post. 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 Job data shows a slowdown in new job offerings. Meanwhile, the Fed (Powell’s speech) hinted that another rate cut this year is not certain. These signals amplify investor fears and put more pressure on the stock market, as capital flows out when uncertainty rises. 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐁𝐞𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭 Basically, new economic studies suggest the market is acting differently than before. Instead of moving steadily upward, prices are now jumping up and down quickly. Investors are more nervous and react faster to news. We saw this in March/April earlier this year, and we’re seeing it again now. An example from our portfolio is $MELI (MercadoLibre Inc), which fell double digits in one week after comments from Juan Martín on the rapid growth of Temu and Shein in Latin America. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐦 𝐈 𝐝𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬? 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘶𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘦𝘛𝘰𝘳𝘰 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘴 :) Best regards, Nabil Sifo I am a professional risk modeler and an Associate Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), London. All posts reflect my personal opinions only and do not constitute, nor should they be interpreted as, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Risk Warnings: Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice | Your capital is at risk | Past performance is not indicative of future results.