Cristian Rojo Gallardo
Spain
3m
Market Update The results season is entering its final stretch. While many of the companies that have published are not part of our portfolio, the focus remains on the aggregate impact on market sentiment, especially in a context where macroeconomic catalysts are gaining prominence over individual fundamentals. In the short term, the market remains waiting for key references. The release of the US employment report for November, the release of which has been postponed, is still pending, and will be decisive in gauging the strength of the business cycle and monetary policy expectations. Added to this is a flood of global PMI data, which will provide a more accurate picture of the pulse of activity in major economies. Central banks are also in the spotlight. The Bank of England is likely to opt for a rate cut following the lead of the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan could raise rates again in its gradual normalization process. For its part, the European Central Bank is expected to remain in a "wait and see" mode, assessing the evolution of inflation and growth before making a move. This set of events has the potential to generate relevant movements in the markets, even beyond the usual volatility of these dates. In this context, we will closely monitor the behavior of the main indices, in particular the S&P 500, which has already accumulated a decline of approximately -1.30%, and which may set the tone with which the month of December closes. In short, we face the end of the year with caution and maximum attention to macro data and monetary policy decisions, aware that any surprise can act as a catalyst in a market that continues to be highly sensitive to expectations.
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