Björn Bredehöft @2BSmart: "𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 - 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭..."

Germany

𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 - 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐈 Dear Investors, The 2025 stock market year is drawing to a close. With a current return of over 24%, we can most likely celebrate another very successful year. Not only have we managed to further increase the portfolio's average annual return of 19.5%, but we have also outperformed the $NSDQ100 Index. A detailed analysis of our 2025 performance, focusing on the key drivers, will be published later. Even though there is something to celebrate, my focus is already on the coming year and the medium-term investment horizon up to 2030. Accordingly, as every year, the portfolio will be rebalanced in January to optimize the risk-return profile and to continue benefiting from trends in the coming years. First of all: My fundamental investment approach will remain unchanged in the coming years. I remain committed to my socially responsible and sustainable investment approach. The overall portfolio orientation will also remain unchanged. What adjustments are planned, and what are the reasons behind them? The last three years on the stock market have been dominated by the AI sector. Since the breakthrough of generative AI for private end users with ChatGPT in November 2022, major tech companies have been able to leverage their existing, massive databases to build their own LLMs, which are now widely used. One example is $GOOG (Alphabet) ‘s Gemini. This development has led to a surge in data processing and AI-powered analytics across almost all industries, with massive investments in hardware such as GPUs, from which $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) has benefited the most. With a market capitalization of nearly $4 trillion, the company now leads the global market. We anticipated this trend early on and invested in NVIDIA, then still a gaming GPU specialist, with a 10% portfolio allocation in January 2022 – almost exactly one year before ChatGPT’s breakthrough. Nearly four years later, the shares have generated an average return of 500%, thus contributing significantly to our strong performance in recent years. This growth was driven by massive investments in data center infrastructure due to the enormous demand for computing power. In 2022, global hyperscalers invested approximately USD 145 billion in data centers, rising to USD 165 billion (+14% year-over-year) in 2023, roughly USD 255 billion (+55% year-over-year) in 2024, and projected to reach USD 440 billion (+73% year-over-year) in 2025. This extreme growth, as is obvious, cannot continue indefinitely. I expect investment volumes to continue growing at around 8-12% year-on-year between 2026 and 2030. It will remain strong, but no longer explosive, as the sums involved are now simply too high. Accordingly - also considering the enormous market capitalization - even key players like NVIDIA are not expected to experience the same explosive returns as in the last three years. This doesn't mean there won't be any growth, but simply that it will slow down. Taking this altered risk-return profile into account, I will reduce my NVIDIA position, as I have in previous years. Regardless, I will reduce my $AAPL (Apple) position, as the company is currently undergoing a transformation from a high-growth tech company to an established hardware manufacturer. In my opinion, this makes its current valuation too risky. For the coming year, 2026, I will maintain my current strategy and not invest in companies whose core business is AI applications. While it's possible to find the next multibagger with a great deal of luck, the risk is enormous: the market for end-user applications remains extremely volatile and highly fragmented. An application that's currently hyped, like DeepSeek in early 2025, can quickly become irrelevant due to more powerful or specialized applications. There are several providers, and the number is growing daily. Here, I see real risks of bubbles forming. Where do I see entry opportunities in trends? Even if growth slows, the demand for computing power remains, in my opinion, the leading trend for the years up to 2030. While the initial phase of this development primarily involved purchasing computing capacity, the focus in the coming years will likely shift to being able to fully utilize that computing power. We're moving from initial infrastructure speculation to a phase of industrial scaling. I see three key themes here: innovative thermodynamic solutions for AI cooling, the energy gap and power grids as bottlenecks, and the material dependency. I see good return potential for companies in these sectors in the coming years. What specific investments am I planning? Since I'm running out of characters for today's post, I'll write another one in the coming days where I explain my planned investments in detail. I'll try to give you more insight into these trends and related companies. If you have any questions, please let me know. What do you think will be the dominant trend in the coming years? Have a great day, Björn $GER40

5 Mentioned

NSDQ100

GOOG

Alphabet

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

AAPL

Apple

GER40

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