Simion Furdui @Inv1nctus: "𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙃𝙖𝙬𝙠𝙞𝙨𝙝 𝙃𝙤𝙡𝙙..."

United Kingdom

𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙃𝙖𝙬𝙠𝙞𝙨𝙝 𝙃𝙤𝙡𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 "𝙋𝙖𝙘𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙘 𝙃𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜" Last week marked a structural shift in the global economy. The era of the "easing bias" is officially over. Every G10 central bank has transitioned into a Hawkish Hold, reconciling with the persistent inflationary effects of the ongoing Iran conflict and a volatile energy landscape. As we move into early May, the market is recalibrating for a high-cost, high-risk baseline that liquidity can no longer mask. 𝟭. 𝘾𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝘽𝙖𝙣𝙠 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘾𝙪𝙩 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙃𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙀𝙫𝙖𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 • The Federal Reserve: Following a hot March PCE print of 3.5%, the market has officially priced out rate cuts for 2026. The Fed is now expected to remain on hold for the remainder of the year as it battles "sticky" inflation. • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): The primary trigger for this week. A 25bp hike to 4.35% is widely expected—the third hike this year—driven by a massive 32.8% surge in petrol prices. • Bank of Japan (BoJ): Backed into a corner after defending the 160 Yen level. Markets are now pricing a 66% chance of a June rate hike to contain imported energy inflation. 𝟮. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙇𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙏𝙚𝙨𝙩: 𝙁𝙧𝙞𝙙𝙖𝙮 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙜𝙚𝙧 Friday’s US Employment Report is the definitive data point for the week. • The Forecast: Consensus points to a gain of 63,000 jobs, a sharp drop from March's 178,000. • The Goal: If unemployment holds at 4.3% while wages slow, it gives the Fed the "resilient but cooling" narrative it needs to maintain its restrictive stance without triggering a recessionary panic. 3. Geopolitical Transmission: The Pacific Hardening ⚓🛡️ While the Middle East remains a stalemate, focus is shifting to the Luzon Economic Corridor. • Supply Chain Hardening: Joint drills in the Philippines aren't just military exercises; they are the physical manifestation of securing a semiconductor supply chain decoupled from outside influence. • Allied Jurisdictions: Strategic visits between Japan and Australia are anchoring the "Physical Safe Haven" trade, moving capital into secure, allied jurisdictions. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙏𝙤𝙧𝙤 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙮: 𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝘿𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧 𝙃𝙚𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙮 The macro environment favors a "high-cost baseline." Here is how we are navigating it: 1. Dollar Strength: The USD remains the ultimate safe haven due to US energy independence. I expect continued strength against the Yen and Euro. 2. The Capex Surge: Government spending and corporate inventory rebuilding favor Domestic Manufacturing and Defense Infrastructure over consumer-focused sectors. 3. Carry Trade Risk: Watch the BoJ. A forced hike in June could dismantle the Yen carry trade, triggering a violent repatriation of capital that would hit high-valuation tech the hardest. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘽𝙤𝙩𝙩𝙤𝙢 𝙇𝙞𝙣𝙚: We are moving out of contested maritime chokepoints and into secure jurisdictions. In this "Hawkish Hold" era, the winners are those who control the physical supply chain and maintain dollar liquidity. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $GOLD $BTC

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.