Aleksandra Jensen @RainbirdFx: "Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen..."

Denmark

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen Over the weekend, Israel and the U.S. carried out coordinated strikes against Iran. Iran retaliated almost immediately with missile and drone attacks. This wasn’t symbolic and it wasn’t a minor exchange – it was direct confrontation, and it is still ongoing. That is why Monday did not open with “old news,” but with fresh geopolitical risk. $OIL reacted first, as it always does. It spiked, though not in panic mode yet. That tells you markets are currently assuming containment. The real issue, however, is not the first strike – it is the duration. If this turns into a prolonged escalation and key transit routes remain under pressure, then energy prices will not just spike; they will stay elevated. And sticky oil means sticky inflation. Now to the levels, because that’s what matters for positioning. The $NSDQ100 sold off aggressively to 24,430. That was a proper flush, not a casual dip. Since then, it has recovered to 24,600. The $SPX500 dropped to 6,755 and is now attempting to stabilize around 6,805. These lows were clear reaction zones where buyers stepped in. The question now is simple: do 24,600 on the NASDAQ and 6,800 on the S&P turn back into support, or do they become resistance? That distinction will decide whether this remains a buy-the-dip environment or shifts into risk repricing. Markets at the moment are treating this as a serious but manageable escalation. That assumption depends on three things: oil staying under control, no sustained disruption of shipping routes, and no broad regional spillover. If any of those variables deteriorate, the inflation narrative returns quickly, and that would complicate the macro backdrop just as yields had started to calm down. There is also the cost dynamic. Prolonged conflict means sustained military spending, supply strain, and higher insurance and freight costs. Even without a full closure of major shipping lanes, risk premiums alone can tighten financial conditions. That’s how geopolitics gradually feeds into earnings and guidance. And speaking of earnings, we are heading into a week with important consumer and semiconductor networking reports, like from $AVGO (Broadcom Inc) Companies, which will now have to comment on demand, supply chains and cost expectations against a backdrop that just became more uncertain. That doesn’t automatically mean disaster – but it reduces visibility. So where does that leave us? Right now, buyers have shown up at support. That is constructive. But this is no longer a purely technical market. The geopolitical premium has returned, and oil is the key variable to watch. If energy stabilizes, equities can stabilize. If oil accelerates higher, the pressure on indices will increase again. Clear & Simple Recap Weekend: U.S. and Israel strike Iran. Iran retaliates. Oil jumps. NASDAQ drops to 24,430 → rebounds toward 24,600. S&P 500 falls to 6,755 → tries to hold around 6,800. Support held for now. The next move depends on whether this conflict stays contained or drags on. Duration is the real risk, not the headline itself. We stay disciplined, we watch the levels, and we let price confirm the narrative – not the other way around. I wish you all a nice and profitable week ahead and all the best A www.breakingthenews.net/Article/US-futures-dip-Dow-down-over-500-points/65773976