AlexandrKudin
THE U.S.MARKET 🇺🇸 Yesterday, major indices ended the day with a sharp decline: the S&P 500 fell 1.59%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.45%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.78%. Investors reacted to new tariff announcements, Nvidia’s earnings report, and key macroeconomic data. - President Donald Trump announced that his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on March 4. China, already facing a 10% U.S. tariff, will be subjected to an additional 10% tariff on the same day. Trump also confirmed that reciprocal tariffs would be introduced starting April 2, while 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect on March 12. - Economists warn that these tariffs could hurt U.S. economic growth, drive inflation higher, and potentially push Mexico and Canada into recession. If implemented as planned, the tariffs would raise taxes on imports by more than $1 trillion. 🤔 These announcements made me reassess my expectations regarding tariff risks. It’s still unclear whether this is just a negotiation tactic or a final decision, but as an investor, I’d rather not take any chances. - Meanwhile, the second estimate of U.S. GDP growth for Q4 remained unchanged at 2.3% quarter-over-quarter. However, Core PCE growth was revised upward from 2.3% to 2.4%. Durable goods orders rebounded 3.1% month-over-month in January, surpassing the 2% consensus estimate and signaling stabilization in the industrial sector. Weekly jobless claims increased by 22,000 to 242,000—the highest since December—far exceeding economists’ expectations of a 2,000 rise. - Bond yields reacted mixed to the data but resumed their decline following the tariff announcements. 🤔 Investors want a rate cut from the Fed, but not at the expense of a significant deterioration in economic fundamentals. At the very least, if the economy slows, I’d want to see inflation ease as well. - 8 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day lower. Chipmakers and technology stocks saw the steepest declines. Nvidia’s stock initially rose after its earnings report but later tumbled. Utility companies with a strong focus on data centers also underperformed. However, financials, energy, and real estate ended in positive territory, benefiting from rising commodity prices and a rebound in yields. 📈 Today, investors will continue to digest the tariff news. Additionally, market participants will be closely watching the release of Core PCE data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. HAVE A SUCCESSFUL DAY $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30 $UK100 $GER40
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