AlexandrKudin @AlexandrKudin: "THE U.S.MARKET 🇺🇸 Yesterday, the major..."

Czech Republic

THE U.S.MARKET 🇺🇸 Yesterday, the major indices ended the day without a clear trend: the S&P 500 rose 0.49%, the Dow Jones fell 0.20%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.22%. Investors reacted positively to inflation data while also continuing to assess tariff-related statements. - In February, consumer price index (CPI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month. Both figures came in 0.1 percentage points better than economists' expectations. The core CPI dropped to 3.1% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month—also 0.1 percentage points below market forecasts. - However, components of the report suggest higher Core PCE values, prompting analysts to raise their February forecasts from 0.25% to 0.29%. Treasury yields responded by rising. Meanwhile, the swap market adjusted its expectations, now pricing in 2.8 rate cuts instead of 3 from the previous day. Despite this, the stock market still experienced a relief rally. 🤔 Over the past three weeks, buying in this market has felt like trying to catch a falling knife. However, extreme overselling and widespread pessimism suggest that a recovery rally is likely. Although the latest CPI data brought some improvement, uncertainty remains as inflation prospects are still unclear due to shifts in trade policy. Given this, I don’t expect the Fed to change its policy anytime soon. The central bank also needs to see inflation expectations stabilize before considering rate cuts. Losing control of these expectations is a major concern, as restoring price stability later would be much more difficult. - 5 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day in positive territory. The best-performing sectors included semiconductor stocks, the broader technology sector, communications, and consumer discretionary, driven by a rebound in the “Magnificent Seven.” - Increased demand was also seen in the oil and gas sector, as oil prices rose for the second consecutive day. Meanwhile, defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare underperformed due to investor rotation. Additional pressure came from a decline in Colgate-Palmolive (CL) after the company warned of weakening consumer demand during a UBS conference. - Meanwhile, former President Trump stated that the U.S. would respond to the European Union's retaliatory measures against its new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing the risk of further escalation in the ongoing global trade war. Canada, in turn, announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on U.S.-made goods worth approximately $ 20.8 billion. The measures will target steel, aluminum, and other consumer products such as computers and sporting goods. These tariffs are fully aligned with the new U.S. metal tariffs on a "dollar-for-dollar" basis. 📈 ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TODAY : • Producer Price Index (PPI) (February) • Initial Jobless Claims HAVE A GREAT DAY , EVERYONE ! $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30 $UK100 $GER40

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SPX500

NSDQ100

DJ30

UK100

GER40

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