Joao Miguel Silva Ferreira @ghostyver: "The FOMC meeting conclusion and..."

Switzerland

The FOMC meeting conclusion and renewed US-China tech tensions. The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes today with a statement and updated projections at 2 PM ET (8 PM CET), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET — his first since succeeding Jerome Powell in May. Markets are priced for no rate change (~97% odds of a hold) but the dot plot and Warsh’s debut press conference could shift expectations, especially as investors get their first read on his communication style. Meanwhile, the FT reports that China’s tech sector is testing the limits of US chip controls, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the semiconductor trade that has powered much of the portfolio’s AI thesis. Semiconductors are under pressure: ASML down 4.69%, MU off 6.18%, and NVDA down 2.37%. This follows last week’s broad rotation out of tech as investors reposition ahead of the Fed’s verdict. The VIX holding at 16.41 suggests complacency — but that calm could break fast once the statement drops. WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE PORTFOLIO The FOMC outcome will set the tone for risk assets this week. With inflation at 4.2% (highest since April 2023), the risk skews hawkish a removal of the last projected cut, or members signaling hikes, could pressure NVDA, ASML, and MU further US-China tech tensions directly impact ASML and $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.), the two most volatile semiconductor holdings With around 5% cash, the portfolio has dry powder to act on any Fed-driven volatility TOP CATALYST The FOMC meeting concludes today with markets priced for a hold. But the projections and Warsh press conference could shift rate expectations. The dot plot is widely expected to drop its last projected cut, and at least three members may project hikes this year — that would pressure growth stocks like $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) and $ASML (ASML Holding NV). Only a clearly dovish surprise would support the AI trade, and that looks unlikely given the inflation backdrop. The next meeting is July 28-29 (six weeks away), though note it carries no updated projections. ——————— 📅 DATE THAT MATTER ——————— June 16-17 — FOMC Meeting → What it is: Two-day Fed meeting concluding with statement, projections (dot plot), and Warsh’s first press conference as Chair → Why it matters: Sets rate expectations for the next 6 weeks. Markets priced for a hold — the signal is in the projections and whether the easing-bias language is dropped BOTTOM LINE The portfolio is positioned with growth (NVDA, semiconductors), income ($VST), and ballast (cash at 5%). The FOMC verdict will either reinforce the AI trade or force a rethink on tech exposure. Watch the dot plot carefully, it is the real signal, not the statement. $SPX500 $NSDQ100

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.