Victor Pedersen @Miyoshi: "Hi everyone, The $SPX500 and $NSDQ100..."

Denmark

Hi everyone, The $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 continue to trade at elevated valuations. The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P remains far above its historical average, which signals that the outlook for long-term returns over the next decade is restrained. With that in mind, the portfolio remains positioned with a net long exposure of 68.7% after hedges. This allocation keeps the portfolio aligned to benefit from further upside while maintaining protection should volatility persist over the next few months. Several market analysts have pointed out that current valuations rely on optimistic assumptions, including resilient growth, stable trade policy, and timely interest rate cuts, and warn that any disruption could put pressure on equity prices. $ROKU (Roku Inc) delivered a strong second quarter in 2025. Total net revenue reached $1.11 billion, rising 15 percent compared with the same period last year. Platform revenue increased 18 percent, gross profit improved 17 percent, and streaming hours advanced by more than five billion. The Roku Channel held its position as the second most-engaged app on the platform in the United States. Management raised its full-year guidance and reaffirmed that operating income is expected to turn positive by the end of the year. Despite these achievements, Roku shares declined following the release as broader concerns around tariffs, inflation, and softening labor data weighed on investor sentiment. I closed a lot of recently built hedges in profit and bought back into the dip. Everything played out well. $U (Unity Software Inc.) also showed progress with its advertising business. The launch of the AI-driven Vector platform has begun to deliver clear improvements in ad performance, with early reports of a 15 to 20 percent lift in user installs and purchases. Investors and analysts have noted the potential for this system to expand margins and strengthen cash flow through the second half of the year as adoption continues. Research and development costs remain elevated due to the rollout, which has affected near-term profitability, yet the transition appears to be gaining momentum. I have trimmed positions and added a few hedges in case the stock momentum begins to fade. Inflation has again emerged as a concern. Consumer prices rose at a faster pace than expected in July, and core inflation remained above three percent. Producer prices also saw their sharpest increase in several years, which complicates expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. Markets had recently assumed that the inflation cycle was nearly resolved, but the latest readings suggest that cost pressures are still present and that monetary policy could remain tighter for longer than anticipated. The portfolio's current positioning reflects a balance between capturing potential growth and managing the ongoing risks of inflation and market volatility. I will continue to monitor these trends closely and adjust as necessary. Thank you for copying.

4 Mentioned

SPX500

NSDQ100

ROKU

Roku Inc

Unity Software Inc.

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