Selim Boukezouh @Selim_: "𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 "𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝘂𝗻"..."

France

𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 "𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝘂𝗻" 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻? 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗜’𝗺 𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞. (I am specifically referring to altcoins here). Why am I reducing my exposure to secondary cryptos (Altcoins) today, even though Bitcoin shows relative resilience ? My answer is cautious: the market structure may be evolving permanently. Two factors are pushing me out of the "Pure Crypto" narrative toward a "Data-driven" strategy on equities. 1. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘀 "𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲" (Bitcoin -> Top 10 -> Small Caps) is struggling to materialize this time, despite a historically bullish signal: the explosion of Stablecoin market cap. There is a massive amount of available liquidity, but it isn't circulating. Why? ·𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐤-𝐢𝐧: Capital is captured by ETFs, contractually remaining in Bitcoin and Ethereum without flowing down. ·𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬: The average investor now buys via neo-banks. These platforms often list only 3 to 5 major cryptos. Result: no volume reaches the rest of the market. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐟 (𝐒𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭): There is a massive divergence in the market structure. ·𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 (𝐓𝐎𝐓𝐀𝐋): Driven by $BTC the total capitalization is revisiting its 2021 All-Time Highs. ·𝐒𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐬 (𝐎𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐒): Excluding the Top 10, the rest of the market is still down ~50% from its peak. The rising tide is no longer lifting all boats. 2. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗨𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆 (𝗛𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸) There is a technical scenario being monitored by analysts. According to a JPMorgan ( $JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co) ) report, it is not out of the question that MicroStrategy could be removed from certain major stock indices (MSCI). $MSTR (Strategy Inc) ·𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝘆𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀: If this exclusion were confirmed, it would force passive index funds to mechanically sell the stock. ·𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀: We are talking about a potential outflow estimated at 9$ billion. This is a turbulence zone I prefer to avoid. 𝐌𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞: Rationalize to Perform Faced with this lack of visibility, I decided to stop "believing" and start "calculating." I am reallocating part of the capital toward quantitative Equity management. Instead of guessing the next "hype," I rely on technology. ·𝐒𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡: Our algorithms (developed in-house on a Rust/Python stack) scan the market to identify solid and undervalued companies. ·𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐚𝐥: To aim for consistent performance via mathematical ratios (High Sharpe, controlled Drawdown) rather than suffering the current emotional volatility. 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐞: This rotation is a tactical response to market conditions. I absolutely do not rule out repositioning into cryptos later. If our signals turn green again and liquidity unlocks, I will adjust exposure accordingly. Are you currently overweight on Alts or Bitcoin? Let me know in the comments. Have a great weekend. $ETH $SOL $SPX500 $IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)