Brian Rapose @brirap: "𝘽𝙞𝙩𝙘𝙤𝙞𝙣, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙙𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤..."

Spain

𝘽𝙞𝙩𝙘𝙤𝙞𝙣, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙙𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 It’s been a while since my last update. That’s because I’ve been closely watching Bitcoin’s behaviour over recent weeks, and one thing has become clearer. When the US dollar weakens, gold and silver rally. Bitcoin doesn’t! For the last ~2.5 months, Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range around $88–90k, while gold and silver have pushed to fresh all-time highs. In a falling-dollar environment with rising macro uncertainty, that matters. It challenges the “digital gold” narrative. We’ve also seen USDT dominance rise in recent weeks. That means capital is moving out of crypto into dollar-based stablecoins. Historically, that’s a bearish signal. So far the drawdown has been around 15–20%, but history shows this type of move can extend to 30–50% before stabilising. Right now, Bitcoin trades more like high-beta tech. It performs when risk appetite is strong and fades when it isn’t. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin has failed. It means it hasn’t yet proven itself as a capital-preservation asset. Despite the short-term outlook being cautious, it’s worth remembering where we are in the cycle. This is traditionally a weak year for crypto. Looking ahead, I believe late spring (May/June) is a realistic window for a potential bottom, followed by a consolidation phase before any sustained move higher. So how is the portfolio positioned for: - A weakening dollar - Sideways equity markets - Fragile crypto rallies First, our $MSTR (Strategy Inc) position. Given the short-term outlook for Bitcoin, further downside in MSTR is possible. That risk is understood. MSTR is now a long-term holding, not a tactical trade. When Bitcoin recovers over the next cycle, this position should recover with it. If MSTR proves it can survive another crypto downturn while continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, I expect a sharp recovery in sentiment and price when conditions turn. Beyond that, the portfolio has been diversified toward more defensive exposure over recent months, including: $LLY (Eli Lilly & Co) $RIO (Rio Tinto PLC ADR) $OIH (VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF) $XLU (State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF) At the same time, after a long period of underperformance, parts of the software and tech space are starting to stabilise. Upcoming earnings will be key in determining whether that recovery has legs. In the short term, the portfolio may experience pressure due to the MSTR exposure. That risk is partially offset by positions in defensive and cash-generating sectors. For now, patience matters. The focus is on being positioned for a potential crypto turnaround later in the year.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.