The $EURUSD has risen above the 1.1100 mark this morning, driven by disappointing U.S. labor market data. Yesterday’s ADP employment report for August revealed only 99,000 new private-sector jobs, falling short of the market’s expectation of 145,000. Coupled with Wednesday's weaker-than-expected JOLT labor market data, this adds to concerns about the U.S. labor market's softness.
However, clarity may emerge this afternoon with the release of the highly anticipated U.S. labor market report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the Fed’s increasing focus on labor market stability, today's data will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for monetary policy. The market is currently pricing in a modest rate cut of 25bps, but a more significant 50bp cut is unlikely unless the data are decisively negative.
Market consensus points to an increase in non-farm payrolls (NFP) to 165,000 jobs in August, up from July’s 114,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. While a significant rate cut seems unlikely, some banks are predicting a modestly positive surprise in today’s data driving significant in major USD pairs $GBPUSD$USDJPY$GOLD... Show More
