▶️ November 23rd, 2025 $NATGAS Analytics:
Natural gas spent this week consolidating the prior breakout. Early in the week there was a cool down to 4.455 followed by a lower high of 4.784 before fading modestly to a 4.678 close.
RSI-14 cooled to 65.33, down from the extreme 73 level — still bullish, but no longer overheated.
Price remains well above structural support (EMA50=4.045, EMA100=3.778, EMA150=3.665)
⸻
Key Fundamentals (week vs last week)
• Production: Dry gas output continued to hover around ~110 Bcf/d, unchanged and still at record levels. No tightening anywhere.
• Consumption: Lower-48 demand averaged ~78 Bcf/d, a small uptick from last week as early-winter heating demand slowly ramps. Still not “true winter” consumption.
• LNG Exports: Flows remained near ~17.3–17.4 Bcf/d, essentially max utilisation. The export side continues to be the only genuinely bullish structural force.
• Storage: EIA (week ending Nov 15) came in with the first withdrawal of the season of -14Bcf vs -12Bcf consensus expectations. Inventories remain 3.8% above the five-year average.
⸻
Technical Levels
• Resistance: 4.83 (dual-top zone) followed by 5.00 psychological and 5.20 hypothetical if weather panic accelerates
• Support: ~4.5 (this week’s floor) followed by ~4.3-4.20, EMA50 at 4.05, then the 3.78–3.66 EMA cluster for deeper mean reversion
⸻
Outlook
NatGas is stabilising after last week’s overextension.
The market is now fully weather-driven.
• If December models turn colder, price has a clean setup to break 4.83 and test 5.00.
• If models soften, a correction toward 4.2 → 4.0 → EMA cluster is the natural path.
I personally still lean toward a correction in the coming weeks. The market has already priced in the current “early-December cold” — the rally to 4.8 happened before temperatures even turned lower, and nothing in the fundamentals tightened enough to justify a sustained breakout. What is not on the table yet is a true Arctic outbreak: no multi-week subfreezing pattern, no production freeze-offs, no heavy HDD spike, nothing resembling a polar vortex signature.
Until that materializes, NatGas is trading ahead of its fundamentals, with price stretched far above the EMA cluster and RSI still elevated. If the weather models don’t intensify quickly, [in my humble opinion] a pullback toward the 4–4.2 zone is the most rational outcome before the next winter leg.
▶️ Nathalie ($NATGAS volatility trading model)
Week #47 update:
+ $7,250 Total earnings (none this week):
▫️+ $4,000 Capital build up (to reach $7,000)
▫️+ $3,250 Nathalie’s earnings
+ $3,030 Nathalie’s refunds (-$195 this week)
= $6,280 Nathalie’s net profit (Nathalie’s earnings + refunds, excl. capital build up) =❗️+89.7% vs $7k of assumed capital invested
Current state:
$NATGAS: 3,885 units short (12 sells including one spare); no change
$UNG (US Natural Gas): 199 units long ($500 strategic buys); no change, I did miss an opportunity to open UNG buy below 14 though that was the part of the plan. My bad, I hoped it would fall lower this week.
▶️ Lookahead:
Reminder: the model is robust until NG price 6, stretched till 6.2 and would require major intervention for the price beyond 6.4.
Natgas entered the phase of fees for sells which wjll result in
Around Nov 23rd refunds for sells will swap to fees which will result in ~$2,000 outflows till the end of the year. It will still allow Nathalie to land at over $4,000 net profits ($3,250 current earnings + ~$1,000 from the full year refunds), which would be over 50% full year profitability which is higher than my 40% target anyway.
▶️ Current key levels (no change):
S=sell, B=buy; ▫️ open now (actual price)▪️limit price order 🔸TP ✅ executed during the week
$NATGAS: $150 is the default stake size for Phase 1 scale-up, $100 positions are marked with “ (will eventually be replaced with $150 stakes), strategic 500 units positions are marked with *
▪️5.5 - RS (recovery sell of 1,500 units which allows closure of S1”/S2”/S3” at -$2,000 cumulative loss once price cools down to 5.35) - at this stage i will have ~7k units short and will wait for retrace
▪️5.4 - S14*
▪️5.2 -S13*
▪️5 - S12*
▫️4.8 - S11*
▫️4.7 - in lieu of skipped S4 (3.5)
🔹4.678 - EOW LEVEL / (11 sells + spare)
▫️4.66 - SPARE sell
▫️4.6 - S10
▫️4.4 - S9
🔸4.3 - TP S10 (+$100)
▫️4.2 - S8
🔸4.1 - TP S9 (+$100)
🔸4.0 - TP SPARE (+$200)
▫️4.0 - S7”
🔸3.9 - TP S8 (+$100)
▫️3.85 - S6”
▪️3.82 - B1
🔸3.8 - TP S7” (+$50)
▪️3.68 - NEW B2
🔸3.66 - TP S6” (+$50)
🔸3.65 - shutdown S5”
▪️3.5 - B3
SKIPPED 3.5 - S4
🔸3.35 - shutdown S3”
▪️3.25 - B4
🔸3.2 - shutdown S2”
▪️3.1 - B5
🔸3.05 - shutdown S1”
$UNG:
🔸20.95 - TP $300 stake with +$1,000 P&L
🔸16.85 - TP $200 stake with +$500 P&L
🔹14.65 - EOW LEVEL / $500 stakes
▪️14.00 - $500
▪️13.50 - $500
▪️13.00 - $500
▫️12.56 - $200
▫️12.56 - $300 ... Show More
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Tue Jan 20 2026 23:57:34 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
