Pierre Neuman @PierreN2023: "⚠️ REGIME EVENT — Model..."

Belgium

⚠️ REGIME EVENT — Model Turned Defensive Before Iran Pause TL;DR: Model dropped to 35/100 → we reduced risk and bought gold at the lows. Hours later, Iran pause announced. Model now at 40/100. --- This morning delivered one of the most volatile sessions of 2026 — and a major geopolitical shift. The US announced a 5-day pause in military operations against Iran, offering a potential off-ramp to a conflict that has driven markets since late February. But the key point: 👉 We didn’t react to the news. The model moved first. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT (YTD) Despite extreme volatility, the strategy continues to outperform: • Our portfolio: +1.35% YTD • $GOLD +0.92% • $NSDQ100: -4.28% • $SPX500 : -4.12% • $BTC: -19.31% 👉 In a year where most assets are down, we are still in positive territory and outperforming our benchmarks. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📡 THE SIGNALS (What Triggered the Move) Tactical Regime Model: • Early session: 35/100 → Bearish → Defensive trigger activated • Post Iran pause: 40/100 → Edge of Neutral/Bearish Macro Stress Model: • Current: 81.7/100 — CRITICAL (Level 3) • 3-month crisis probability: 50–60% • 12-month: 70–80% 👉 Tactical tells us when to act. Macro tells us why we stay defensive. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔄 WHAT WE DID (REAL-TIME EXECUTION) At 35/100, the model doesn’t hesitate — and neither do we. Reduced risk / exited: $INSM (Insmed Incorporated), $PDD (PDD Holdings Inc - ADR), $ADSK (Autodesk, Inc.), $INTC (Intel), $ROP (Roper Technologies Inc) Added into the dip: Physical Gold ($PPFB.DE) — ~$4,200 (intraday lows) Maintained core positioning: • Gold, Silver, Gold Miners • Energy & Defense • Cash elevated now at 30% 👉 Gold has since rebounded to ~$4,400. 👉 Execution matched the signal. No hindsight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 WHY MACRO STRESS REMAINS EXTREME (81.7/100) The Iran conflict is not the root cause — it’s an accelerant. Underlying pressures remain: • US debt > $36T with rising interest burden • Bond market stress (MOVE Index at crisis levels) • German 10Y ~3% (highest since 2011) • Weak Treasury demand (recent failed auction) • Fiscal dominance → path toward financial repression 👉 If conflict fades: risk premium drops, but macro fragility remains 👉 If conflict resumes: current positioning is already aligned Either way → 81.7/100 = stay defensive, hold real assets, keep optionality ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛡️ THE DISCIPLINE This was a real-time stress test: • Model → 35/100 → we de-risked • Gold → $4,200 → we bought the dip • News → Iran pause → model back to 40/100 • Portfolio impact: ~ -0.3% on the day 👉 We don’t predict headlines. 👉 We position according to our machine learning signals. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💬 YOUR TAKE Is this Iran pause a real de-escalation… —or the calm before a larger move? Curious how you’re positioning 👇 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔗 DIVE DEEPER • Strategy + how to copy: etoro.tw/4hPrBiO • Model upgrade: etoro.tw/4rBGpqW • Performance: bullaware.com/etoro/PierreN2023 • Shark Tank story: etoro.tw/492fU5o • eToro Quant Program: etoro.tw/4shY3QQ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Signals trigger. Our Models adapt. We continue to compound for the next 25 years with discipline for my two little shareholders 👶🏻👶🏻 at home and all those who join us along the way. Thank you to my 220+ copiers and 4000+ followers for your trust🙏💚 — PierreN2023 Member of the eToro Quantitative Investment Program

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.