๐๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น?
Iโm genuinely curious how people think about this.
My answer is no and here's why:
In 2023, some of the best resourced funds in the world were short $NVDA. They had the models, the analysts, the conviction. The valuation looked stretched. The thesis made sense.
The stock tripled anyway.
They lost over $30 billion.
Not because they were wrong about the valuation. But because the market didn't care about their timeline - margin did.
When a stock moves hard against you, most people can't hold. Psychologically or financially. And if you're using leverage, the broker decides when you're out - not you.
On the long side, being early just means waiting.
On the short side, being early means losing money while you wait.
There's also a ceiling on what you can make. A stock can't go below zero. So 100% is your best day ever. On the long side there's no ceiling - some companies go up 1000%+ over years.
I'd rather be on the right side of that equation.
If I'm worried about markets, I reduce exposure. I hold cash. That's enough.
๐๐ผ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น?... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Yes, regularly
100.00%
Only high conviction
100.00%
No, not worth it
100.00%
0
0
0
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