๐ฏ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐: ๐๐๐ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐๐
Wall Street is showing resilience, but macro data is sending mixed signals while Europe slows down. All eyes are on the Fed's next move, which will decide on rates during an informational "blackout"!
๐๐๐ผ: ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐ช๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐๐ฃ๐, ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐จ ๐๐๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐ฝ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ?
American manufacturing data offers an ambivalent picture, fueling uncertainty about the true health of the economy:
โข ๐๐๐ฃ๐ช๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐๐ฃ๐ ๐พ๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐จ๐ฉ: The PMI Index (52.2) suggests resilience (up from 51.9), but the Manufacturing ISM drops to 48.2 (from the previous 48.7). The ISM marks the ninth consecutive month of contraction, with the strongest deterioration in new orders since July.
When PMI and ISM diverge, the market historically tends to trust the ISM more (larger sample and greater industrial weight).
โข "๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ ๐ฎ" ๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ: The Core PCE (September data) has risen for the third consecutive month to +0.2%. Inflation remains below 3%, but is not declining, staying "stable but sticky."
โข ๐๐ง๐๐๐จ๐ช๐ง๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐: The 10-year Treasury is trading in a tight range between 4.0% and 4.1%. A significant move may only be seen after the FED's rate decision. We will see if the bond market follows a move consistent with the FED's decision or a contrarian movement.
๐๐๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ค๐ฌ๐๐ค๐ฌ๐ฃ ๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐จ ๐๐๐๐ก
The Old Continent is showing a widespread slowdown, with Germany as the main weak spot:
โข ๐๐๐๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐พ๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐ง๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ: The German Manufacturing PMI drops to 48.2, continuing the weak industrial cycle. France (47.8) and new orders in the Eurozone (49.4) are also in contraction.
โข ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐ช๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ ๐๐๐จ๐ : The decline in inventories and purchasing activity indicates that production is at risk in the coming months.
โข ๐๐๐ง๐ข๐๐ฃ๐ฎ: Germany is entering three consecutive quarters of Stagflation, confirming industrial weakness.
โข ๐๐พ๐ฝ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ: Overall Eurozone inflation is slightly higher at 2.2%, with the Core stable at 2.4% and Services rising to 3.5%. This mix is too "sticky" to justify new rate cuts by the ECB.
๐๏ธ ๐๐๐: ๐๐ข๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐ฟ๐๐๐๐จ๐๐ค๐ฃ ๐ผ๐ข๐๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐ฝ๐ก๐๐๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ
The Fed will make its decision next week. Although a cut is almost certain, it will do so without key inflation data (November CPI) and employment data (November Report). This increases uncertainty, as highlighted by the stalled Treasury yields. The Christmas rally will depend entirely on the FED's words.
๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฎ๐ค๐ช ๐๐ค๐ง ๐ฎ๐ค๐ช๐ง ๐จ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ค๐ง๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ'๐ฉ ๐๐ค๐ง๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐๐ค๐ฅ๐ฎ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ค๐ง๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ก๐๐ค!
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Sun Jan 25 2026 08:50:48 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
