Ana Sarda Rodrigues @nintingale: "𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 – 𝙁𝙚𝙗𝙧𝙪𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲:..."

Germany

𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 – 𝙁𝙚𝙗𝙧𝙪𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩-𝙏𝙚𝙧𝙢 𝙋𝙖𝙞𝙣, 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜-𝙏𝙚𝙧𝙢 𝙂𝙖𝙞𝙣 📈 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙃𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙨 February was volatile, especially across tech. The software space saw a sharp repricing, dragging down the Nasdaq Composite and broader growth indices. AI disruption is accelerating, and markets are now separating the real beneficiaries from companies whose business models are being challenged, particularly in areas like customer service and finance. Private equity is also feeling the pressure. A large number of loans tied to software companies are coming up for refinancing, and not all of them will make it through intact. This adds stress to an already fragile segment of the market. On top of that, geopolitical risks are back in focus. War with Iran (now officially) could push oil back toward $80 this week and bring inflation concerns back into the narrative. Markets don’t appear to be fully pricing this in. Short term, the combination of tech pressure and political tension can keep indices under pressure. Long term, our thesis remains unchanged: global growth continues to expand — with Asia increasingly in the spotlight — structural dollar weakness remains a tailwind, and capital rotation toward Europe and Emerging Markets is gradually unfolding. 📊 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 The portfolio delivered -2.5% in February, in between the major U.S. benchmarks: S&P 500 (SPY): -1% MTD Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): -4.5% MTD Operational Update Theme allocation tracking is now fully automated and updated in real time through eToro’s new features and custom tools built via Base44. This gives us continuous visibility on positioning, and I keep adding more functionalities over time. 👉 Live version (eToro login required) 👉 PDF version (updated every 30 days) Ps: I am still trying to fix some bugs with the App, but overall you can have a pretty good idea of what we own on the portfolio (using the sheets) and why (below) Theme Breakdown & Positioning 💻 Technology (Add) I never start with tech, i hate to own tech but I cannot ignore the AI trade.In fact, the AI trade is not dead — it’s just becoming more selective. We are expressing our views through memory exposure via iShares MSCI South Korea ETF ($EWY), optics through Coherent Corp. ($COHR), and AI infrastructure plus consumer hardware beneficiaries like Corsair Gaming ($CRSR), Cloudflare ($NET), and Amazon ($AMZN). Users beyond tech savyiers are starting to run their own AI agents on free models and spending more in hardware as a way to make it affordable instead of spending thousands in token every month. 𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙩! 𝙎𝙤 𝙄 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙙𝙞𝙥 𝙩𝙤 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙝 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚, 𝙛𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙨𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙢 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙗𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙩 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙩-𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝘼𝙄 𝙨𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙨. 🛢️ Commodities (Add) We increased exposure to commodities. Energy sentiment is extremely bearish, and with geopolitical risks rising, the risk/reward looks attractive. We added Viper Energy ($VNOM), Diamondback Energy ($FANG), and United States Oil Fund ($USO). If oil stages a recovery, these should respond quickly. 🥇 Precious Metals (Hold) Precious metals remain a hold. They continue to consolidate quietly, and positioning is far from crowded. While retail talks about gold, hedge funds are still underexposed. We believe the broader move higher is not finished. 🌍 Emerging Markets (Add) Emerging Markets remain our largest theme. We added to China on weakness via Alibaba Group ($BABA), Baidu ($BIDU), and Las Vegas Sands ($LVS). We closed iShares MSCI Brazil ETF ($EWZ) as election-related volatility is likely to increase from here. ₿ Crypto (Sell) In crypto, we reduced exposure. Sentiment is extremely negative, but technically the monthly 50MA around 56K could still act as a magnet before a meaningful bounce. This will an incredible opportunity to accumulate for the long term, but for now we prefer patience here Hedges&Cash We have around 5% of the portfolio in hedges at the moment, this is just to soft the blow from a market crash and will be converted to cash to take advantage of upcoming opportunities this year 🔮 𝙇𝙤𝙤𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙙 Markets feel more fragile than they appear on the surface. 𝙒𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙪𝙢 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎&𝙋 𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙨 𝙨𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚, 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙀𝙏𝙁 𝙞𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙪𝙣𝙙 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙧 𝙨𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙨𝙪𝙜𝙜𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙩 𝙛𝙚𝙬 𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙝𝙨 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙣𝙜𝙞𝙣𝙜. We remain about 20% in cash, ready to deploy into opportunities. March may look similar to February — pressure on the indices, rotation under the surface, and relative strength in defensive and real assets. Short-term pain is uncomfortable. But it often sets up long-term gain.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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