Recap & Radar: oil whipsaws, a short week ahead
Dear copiers, investors and followers,
A quick look at what moved markets recently and what could matter in the days ahead, with a focus on what is potentially relevant for my portfolio.
Geopolitics and oil
The ceasefire is not holding cleanly. In recent days the same sequence has repeated: Iran hits a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the US responds with strikes on Iranian military sites. On Thursday a container ship was attacked, on Friday the US retaliated, on Saturday a tanker carrying Qatari oil was hit and the US struck again. It is the third time in three weeks this pattern has played out. So the formal resolution I expected last week has turned into a stop-start truce.
$OIL prices have fallen back toward pre-war levels because the market treats the Strait as normalized. The physical picture is more mixed. Stranded ships are exiting, but the real question is how many vessels will return. Shipowners remain cautious: war-risk insurance has spiked, and few want to re-enter a corridor that is still being attacked. Flows are recovering, but they remain below pre-war levels. That is why I do not view cheap oil as a settled story.
There is also a point the market is downplaying. The most critical issue, Iran's enriched uranium, has been pushed to the later stage of the talks and is still untouched. Until it is settled, the risk is not resolved, only postponed.
The week ahead
Due to the July 4th holiday, it is a short week in the US, compressing the economic calendar. The June jobs report, normally a Friday release, has been brought forward to Thursday, July 2. This is the swing factor. A strong number revives the fear of higher rates, which tends to lift the dollar. A weak one reopens the debate about whether rate hikes are coming at all. With thin holiday liquidity, the reaction to that print could be larger than usual. A stronger dollar could in turn weigh further on $GOLD, one of the big losers of recent months.
Ad maiora
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to take on risk. Every decision remains the sole responsibility of each investor.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
A thoughtful process is built around separating short-term market reactions from the bigger picture, staying flexible with new information while keeping decisions grounded and consistent.... Show More
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Mon Aug 10 2026 02:27:35 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
