Ana Sarda Rodrigues @nintingale: "𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 – April 2026:..."

Germany

𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 – April 2026: All-Time Highs, Zero Resolution Dear All, April delivered one of the most powerful rallies in recent memory—and I remain skeptical. Here's why I'm staying cautious while everyone else celebrates. 📈 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙃𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙨 The Disconnect The FOMC meets tomorrow (April 28-29), with rates expected to hold at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed has signaled one cut before year-end, but any easing stays on hold until inflation cools. Meanwhile, markets are making new all-time highs as if none of this matters. The S&P 500 posted a remarkable ~9% gain in April alone—one single week delivered +4.5% despite poor economic data. The Nasdaq is up 8.2% YTD. Animal spirits are running wild. The Paradox I was expecting new highs—but from a quick war resolution. That hasn't happened. Until we see genuine progress on that front, I remain cautious. The rally feels borrowed. The oil market has completely disconnected from street prices. At some point, this gap will close. When it does, I believe oil and agricultural commodities will prove to be the best portfolio hedges available—together with energy-related companies. 📊 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝘼𝙙𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨 The portfolio delivered +4% in April—underperforming the broader market due to defensive positioning. I'm comfortable with that trade-off. • S&P 500 (SPY): +9% in April | +5% YTD • Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +8.2% YTD Main Portfolio Changes Energy Exposure: 21.8% (up from 15.2%) Energy stocks will, in my view, continue to outperform due to the oil shock—especially if the conflict drags on. Added $USO (United States Oil Fund), $OIL (Non Expiry), and continued building commodity exposure. This is the trade that makes sense in a war economy. Hedges: 9.9% (down from 13.3%) Removed the majority of short positions. Learned my lesson—any positive headline can send this market ripping higher. Now holding only agricultural futures and ETFs as protection from a prolonged conflict. $CORN.FUT $SUGAR.FUT Finance: 7.3% (up from 4.9%) This was the opportunity I was waiting for. European banks remain quietly the best-performing sector of recent years. They continue to execute well and are expanding their loan books—which will boost profitability and effectively expand the broader economy. Very high conviction. Added aggressively during the March correction. $SAN (Banco Santander SA (US)-ADR) $BCS (Barclays PLC-ADR) $UCG.MI (UniCredit Commercial Bank) Technology: 5.1% (up from 3.4%) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc), $GRPN (Groupon Inc) , Corsair Gaming, XNET, and KSPI were names I added during the dip. The AI bottleneck remains real, and select companies will continue to benefit. The key is extreme selectivity—and the patience to hold through the storms. 🔮 𝙇𝙤𝙤𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙙 My Stance Despite this historic rally, I don't think we're out of the woods. Adding risky assets now could mean playing a dangerous game in the medium term. I'm sitting out and holding my high-conviction positions while keeping cash at 10-15%—until negotiations achieve something more than temporary ceasefires. The Uncomfortable Truth You don't want to short indexes and speculative stocks right now. Animal spirits are out, passive flows dominate, and momentum traders are in control. I've been burned before going short too early—it's not worth it. Your best protection isn't betting against the rally. It's owning the assets that are actually reacting to reality: oil and agriculture. Stay sharp, stay hedged, and stay patient.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.