Reinhardt Gert Coetzee @reinhardtcoetzee: "𝙑𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙃𝙞𝙜𝙝, 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚: 𝟮𝟲..."

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Edited

𝙑𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙃𝙞𝙜𝙝, 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚: 𝟮𝟲 𝙎𝙚𝙥𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 Markets have been powering ahead this year — the S&P 500 is up ~13% YTD — helped by Fed rate cuts and continued optimism in tech. But under the surface, cracks are showing: inflation is sticky, bond yields are pressing higher, and geopolitical tensions aren’t going away. Valuations are stretched: The $SPX500 is trading around a P/E of 28–30x, well above historical norms. The Shiller CAPE ratio just touched levels last seen in the dot-com bubble. In simple terms: stocks are priced for perfection, and any stumble could hit hard. 💵 Why Cash is King at Times Like These When markets look this expensive, having a decent cash buffer isn’t about being bearish — it’s about being prepared. It gives you the optionality to buy into sharp drawdowns. It cushions your portfolio from forced selling. And maybe most importantly, it helps you stay calm and sleep better when volatility spikes. Now, I fully acknowledge cash is, and has been, a drag on performance while markets have been running higher. But for me, it’s a worthwhile trade-off — it helps keep the volatility and overall risk score of my portfolio more stable. That balance between growth and risk management is key to compounding long-term. Fund managers are currently holding just ~3.9% cash on average — very lean considering the risks. Personally, I like to keep anywhere from 5–15% in cash, depending on the cycle, then scale back in when fear takes over. 🧭 My Take Yes, I’m long-term bullish on tech and innovation — but with valuations this high, I’d rather keep some cash aside. Not because I expect a crash tomorrow, but because big opportunities usually show up when markets fall, not when they’re euphoric. Best, Reinhardt

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