The Iran situation has been a far bigger global problem than I ever imagined three weeks ago. To me it seems less likely now there will be a fast and easy resolution. Trump today declared both Iran and USA want a deal and stocks have risen. I am dubious that this is actually going to happen and seems more like a Trump statement to pump the market. I have used the 'exit liquidity' to get out of my position in Barclays.
Barclays has been a fantastic stock to hold over the past couple of years but I am concerned about the exposure they have to the looming crisis in private finance. They are not directly doing private credit, but they are providing the finance to the companies who are. Being one step removed is not going to help much if even half the rumours of bad loans from Blackrock, Blackstone, Aries, and others are true. It has the potential to be very messy and on top of the Iran situation makes $BARC.L (Barclays) seem especially risky right now. I'm also exiting the Dubai property company's I am holding small positions in. It's pretty clear now as this is dragging on these will not have a good future as even if this is resolved tomorrow, having threats to the infrastructure which the region depends on and which are not currently properly protected from drone strikes must give anyone with enough money to buy one of these villas enough reason to pause.
Thanks to all my copiers for holding faith, its been extremely difficult to effectively avoid this drawdown as some safe haven assets like Gold have also performed so badly and its actually the US tech giants which were already at full value that have held up better than many value stocks in Europe.
Edit: As a comment has reminded me to mention - As always, this is my own opinion and is not financial advice... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
I’m sorry but if you didn’t think that this war was a big global problem from the onset, then frankly I’m not sure you should be advising anyone.... Show More
You stated ‘it’s a far bigger problem than I ever imagined three weeks ago’, which is what I was referring to as ‘onset’. Furthermore, Trump stated that Iran wanted a deal, which if that were true, they why was he deploying troops to Iran? I think maybe we all should assess how this really affects the... Show More
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