๐จ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐, ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฟ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
The past week has revealed increasingly visible cracks in the global financial system. Wall Street remains near record highs, while Japanโs government bond market has entered a phase of significant stress. Meanwhile, gold continues to set new all-time highs.
๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ผ๐: ๐ฝ๐๐๐ฟ๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
Japanese Government Bonds are facing one of their most delicate phases in decades. Ten-year yields have risen above 2.3%, the highest level in more than 25 years, while market liquidity has deteriorated sharply.
๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ค๐ง๐จ:
โข Reduction in Bank of Japan bond purchases
โข Selling pressure from domestic investors
โข A sharp increase in foreign investor participation, largely through short-term positions
The result is not just volatility, but a structurally more fragile market.
๐ฆ ๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐พ๐
The Bank of Japan has kept policy rates at 0.75%, but its room for maneuver is extremely limited:
โข Raising rates risks accelerating the bond sell-off
โข Keeping rates low weakens the yen and fuels uncertainty
Snap elections scheduled for February 8 and pledges of higher public spending are adding further pressure to both government debt and the currency.
๐ช ๐๐๐๐ฟ ๐ผ๐ ๐๐๐พ๐๐๐ฟ ๐๐๐๐๐
Gold has moved above $4,500 per ounce, driven by:
โข Geopolitical tensions
โข Financial instability
โข Defensive demand
โข Deโdollarization
Goldman Sachs highlights potential upside toward $5,400, although such levels remain conditional on broader macroeconomic developments.
โฟ ๐ฝ๐๐๐พ๐๐๐: ๐๐ ๐พ๐๐๐ผ๐ ๐ฟ๐๐๐๐พ๐๐๐๐
Despite a modest recovery attempt, Bitcoin remains without a clear trend and has recently slipped below $90,000. The technical picture remains fragile and well-defined:
โข ๐๐ช๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ค๐ง๐ฉ: $87,000โ$88,000. A breach of this range could lead to deeper corrections.
โข ๐๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐๐: $94,000โ$96,000. A stable recovery above this area would be needed to reactivate a bullish trend across the crypto market.
For now, Bitcoin continues to behave primarily as a risk asset, far from being a true safe haven as many had hoped. Its trajectory remains highly dependent on global liquidity and broader financial market sentiment.
๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐๐พ๐๐๐๐
โข The dollar and yen, remain under pressure
โข Europe appears stable but lacks growth momentum
โข Japan is emerging as a critical stress point for the global system
๐ ๐๐๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ผ๐๐
Japan currently represents the primary stress point in the global financial system, with clear tensions across debt, liquidity, and currency markets. However, as long as these strains remain contained and liquidity mechanisms do not spill over into global markets, the broader growth cycle is not necessarily at risk. The more immediate challenge lies in structurally higher volatilityโcharacterized by sharp moves, rapid rotations, and potentially misleading market signals. In this environment, the key is not to anticipate a crisis prematurely, but to distinguish short-term noise from structural shifts.
Don't forget to copy my portfolio!
$EURUSD$GOLD$BTC$JPN225... Show More
Completely agree. After Bessentโs warning, the situation appears temporarily contained, but Japanese government bonds remain a key risk factor and should be closely monitored.
Any further shock to yields or liquidity could quickly turn this into a self-reinforcing debt dynamic, with broader implications... Show More
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