Moric Kocsa Pillmann @MoricPortfolio: "👀Tough week - we closed..."

Hungary

👀Tough week - we closed -5.0%, underperforming both benchmarks due to our heavier semiconductor exposure with a rough week for the sector. The $NSDQ100 returned ~-3.0%, while the $SPX500 finished ~-1.2%. ⚠️𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: 🌍𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 - 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤-𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 --> A broad-based weekly loss across all major indices is observable across all major indices $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $DJ30 --> Renewed U.S.-Iran conflict escalated again, with $OIL prices jumping and adding to risk-off sentiment into Friday's close - due to this, energy was the lone bright spot sector-wise $XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) 🔧𝐀𝐈/𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 - 𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐭 --> The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index $SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF ) entered a bear market this week, down over 13% in the past month and posting its worst week since April 2025 --> Chinese AI startup Moonshot released a powerful open-source model, raising fears that U.S. AI firms could face pricing/competitive pressure - $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) and $INTC (Intel) all sold off on the reaction to the news 💳𝐏𝐚𝐲𝐏𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐢𝐝 - 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐮𝐩 --> Stripe and private equity firm Advent International made a joint $53B offer for $PYPL (PayPal Holdings) at $60.50/share - a 28% premium - backed by ~$50B in committed bank financing --> PayPal stock jumped as much as 16-20% on the news; the deal would see Stripe and Advent share equal ownership without breaking up the company 🧠𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭: This week was a classic "geopolitics plus AI fatigue" pullback rather than a fundamental break - but our semiconductor overweight made the drawdown sharper than the broader market. I did a broader analysis on tech and especially AI over the week, and my conviction stands - tech will continue to outperform. Semiconductors are cyclical, but due to the AI theme, this cycle will last longer with a current pullback. Whenever there is a clear bottom-looking opportunity, I will increase our exposure to $TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) $SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF) and $SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF) BUT I will also rebalance the portfolio as we will move to all-time-highs in the future to capitalize on our leveraged gains. 💭 I'm watching the AI bear-market technically closely, but the underlying AI capex and earnings story hasn't cracked yet - Q2 tech earnings later this month will be the real test. Let me know your thoughts or if you have any questions in the comments! Best, Moric

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.