Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 22 ꜱᴇᴘᴛᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2025 Markets..."

United Arab Emirates

Edited

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 22 ꜱᴇᴘᴛᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2025 Markets are undergoing shifts that challenge long-held certainties, from the dollar’s dominance to China’s growth outlook. Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research highlights five areas where he sees clear investment potential, judged on fundamentals, valuation, momentum, positioning and policy support. evergreengavekal.com/blog/convictions-and-concerns/ Gave argues the US dollar has entered a protracted bear market. A yawning current-account deficit, fading foreign appetite for US assets, looser Fed policy and an open weaker-dollar stance from Washington all point to depreciation. Short-term technicals may offer support, but the structural case is for sustained weakness. Gave holds the opposite view about Chinese equities, which have entered a genuine bull market. Although real estate troubles and demographics continue to weigh on the Chinese economy, productivity gains, cheap capital, supportive policy and attractive valuations are drawing investors back. Sentiment is shifting from capital preservation to return-seeking, giving the rally firmer legs. The third area Gave likes is Financials. Years of regulatory pressure and flat yield curves had crushed profitability; now, with steeper curves and deregulation, margins are improving. Valuations are no longer dirt cheap but remain reasonable. Latin American local debt is another opportunity. High real yields, especially in Brazil, combined with dollar weakness and looser policy, create a positive environment for bond investors. Political risks remain, but local pension funds and external buyers may fuel a sustained rally. Finally, precious metals—particularly silver, platinum and palladium—are set to benefit from reflation, supply constraints and a weaker dollar. Gold looks relatively expensive, but the broader precious complex should continue to provide protection and upside in a reflationary environment. Taken together, these convictions reflect a world where the dollar loses primacy, reflationary assets gain traction, and emerging markets regain relevance. In Gave’s view, investors should shift exposures toward non-US risk and real assets, while staying mindful of policy and political shocks. I implement these ideas through Financials. I will be looking into Gave’s other ideas—Chinese stocks, Latin American debt and precious metals miners—should the valuations of Financials normalise. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 YTD +31.0% 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 None 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Convictions And Concerns

evergreengavekal.com

“Those are my principles; and if you don’t like them, well, I have others” —Groucho Marx The summer holidays did not come soon enough. Most clients we met before everyone took off admitted to being more tired than Lindsay Lohan’s probation officer. To be sure, it has been a busy year: tariffs, fights between White House and Federal Reserve, war in Iran, war in Ukraine, India-Pakistan war, Deep Seek and other AI advances, Japanese, Korean and German elections, China’s fiscal stimulus and its attempts to curb rampant over-supply. Any one of these topics would be worthy of a book. Sti...

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