Filip Brnadic @PROJECT10X: "To my copiers: I wanted to..."

Australia

To my copiers: I wanted to share a quick zoomed-out view because it helps me stay focused on the bigger picture instead of getting caught up in short-term price action. I have already covered the main tailwinds and headwinds in earlier posts, so I will not repeat them here. What I want to highlight is this: macro drives crypto. It always has. It always will. The RORO tool remains positive, even though all crypto momentum indicators are currently 🔴. I am now back-testing whether it makes sense to add a condition that reduces exposure when all crypto signals flip 🔴 at the same time, which would inevitably account for the condition below 👇🏽 I have reviewed the past 3 cycles to see whether we have ever had a situation where macro and equities were bullish while crypto entered a proper bear market. That has never happened. It speaks to how strong the 4-year retail narrative feels, even when the macro backdrop is supportive. And the backdrop we are moving into looks like this: ➡️ global liquidity rising ➡️ rates heading lower ➡️ employment weakening, which forces further easing ➡️ USD weakening ➡️ QT slowing with expansion ahead ➡️ stimmies likely heading into mid-terms With that in mind, this feels much more like the corrections we saw in April 2021, March 2024 and April 2025. I have said repeatedly that we would see lower before higher, and that 2026 would be a strong year for risk assets. I still maintain that statement. I'd love to have waited for a deeper pullback before deploying capital (and that's a valuable lesson in risk management and exposure vs confidence level), but we are here now. Our current portfolio drawdown is also comparable to what we experienced earlier in the year, so it is well within normal ranges for what we trade. Over the next few weeks, you will see me reducing and re-adding exposure to manage further downside risk. Yes, this creates trading fees, but given the volatility of this asset class, I am comfortable paying a small cost to protect capital. My recommendation (per my bio) is to take a multi-year view instead of a multi-month one. Drawdowns are part of the journey, and if I believed the odds of entering a true bear market were higher than 10%, I would not be positioned as I am. If you have any questions, thoughts, drop a comment below. Disclaimer: Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results $BTC $AUS200 $NSDQ100 $UK100 $GER40

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