Kevin Pando @Kevin_Pando: "US CPI surprises to the..."

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US CPI surprises to the downside | Is inflation finally losing momentum? Today's CPI report delivered an encouraging surprise. Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% YoY in June, beating expectations, while core CPI was flat month-over-month. Even more notably, this marks the first monthly decline in the CPI index since 2020. Lower gasoline prices played a key role in easing inflation, offering consumers some relief after months of energy-driven price pressures linked to the Iran conflict. However, the bigger takeaway is that price increases also moderated across much of the broader economy. That said, I don't think the inflation story is over. Oil has already rebounded sharply in July as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified again, and markets are still assessing the impact of tariffs and the massive wave of AI infrastructure investment, both of which could keep underlying inflation sticky over the coming months. For the Federal Reserve, today's data is certainly welcome, but probably not decisive. Markets had recently begun pricing in the possibility of a rate hike later this month. This report may reduce some of that pressure, but policymakers will likely want confirmation from the upcoming PCE inflation data before changing their stance. For investors, today's release reinforces an important lesson, one data point rarely changes the long-term investment thesis, but it can significantly influence short-term market expectations and volatility. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $RTY $OIL $NATGAS $GOLD $AAPL (Apple) $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.