Hello to copiers and followers,
This market feels heavily news-driven and plagued by insider trading. Classic technical trends have broken down, leaving few setups that combine attractive valuation with clear price momentum — my preferred criteria for high-conviction trades. Instead, we’re stuck in a choppy, range-bound environment.
Oil stands out with the strongest fundamentals. Even if the straits were reopened tomorrow, it would take nearly a month for meaningful volumes to reach most destinations. I believe the oil market is approaching a critical inflection point where prices could accelerate sharply. The main headwind is repeated political statements that appear designed to suppress prices in the short term.
Having attempted to trade oil actively, I’ve concluded I lack any real edge against players with advance knowledge of policy announcements.
My current positioning reflects this view: I hold a core oil position, a significant cash reserve, and a selective basket of stocks that should benefit from an eventual de-escalation of hostilities. The plan is to sell the oil into strength once the physical market tightens, then look to buy the eventual panic selling that could emerge when oil shortages create broad economic stress — stress that I expect will accelerate negotiations and force a resolution.
As the old adage goes, never waste a good crisis.
Regards,
Jim
... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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Sat Jul 11 2026 08:06:50 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
