Recap & Radar: central banks split, fragile peace
Dear copiers, investors and followers,
A quick look at what moved markets recently and what could matter in the days ahead, with a focus on what is potentially relevant for my portfolio.
Rates
Three central banks moved within days. The Fed held but turned hawkish in its projections, the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent (its first hike since 2023), and the Bank of England held at 3.75 percent. I covered the Fed in a dedicated post. The takeaway for me is that a tightening ECB and a no longer dovish Fed support $USDOLLAR.
Geopolitics and commodity
The Iran war moved toward a formal close. The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that starts with reopening the Strait of Hormuz and opens a 60 day negotiating window. Oil came down hard as the risk premium deflated. The fragility is the part I want to flag. The deal leaves enforcement, future tolls and long term authority over the Strait unresolved, and both sides are already projecting different interpretations. US officials describe flows as returning toward normal, but Iran has signaled it could restrict access again, partly tied to the separate Israel and Hezbollah front in Lebanon.
The week that arrives
With three central bank meetings behind us, attention turns to whether the ceasefire holds and to incoming inflation and jobs data, which is now the swing factor for whether the penciled in hikes actually arrive. On the equity hedges, the mix of tighter policy in Europe and elevated yields keeps me cautious on chasing strength.
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation. Every decision remains the sole responsibility of each investor.
Ad maiora... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
A steady process is built by staying focused on the bigger picture, keeping decisions consistent through changing conditions, and letting the strategy guide the journey.... Show More
.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Mon Aug 10 2026 01:14:34 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
