๐๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ
Yesterday, Ursula von der Leyen announced the historic agreement on X with these words:
"๐ธ๐ข๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ โ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ฆ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ฆ. ๐๐ โ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐กโ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ."
This agreement is a textbook validation of why we prioritize ๐๐๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ก๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. While the US turns toward protectionism, two of the world's largest economies (covering 2 billion people) have just opened their doors to one another.
Here is my analysis of the deal and its impact on our strategy:
1๏ธโฃ ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ๐จ ๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ญ
The "return of Trump" and the subsequent tariff hikes (15% on EU / 50% on India) have accelerated a necessary decoupling. Strategic resilience is rarely a function of reliance on a single consumer of last resort; rather, it derives from creating new corridors of value. By lowering barriers between the EU and India, both regions are effectively hedging against US volatility.
This confirms the thesis behind our equal-weight approach: when one market closes, others inevitably open.
2๏ธโฃ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ
This agreement integrates two distinct yet highly complementary economic models: high-value consumption and rapid industrial expansion.
๐ช๐บ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง:
๐๐๐: ~โฌ18.9 Trillion
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐: ~โฌ39,300
๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐: The EU is already India's largest trading partner for goods. With an aging population constraining the labor supply, the new ๐๐จ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ญ is a critical mechanism to access India's qualified workforce. Simultaneously, Europe remains the "global wallet" capable of absorbing Indian manufacturing at scale.
๐ฎ๐ณ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐:
๐๐๐: ~โฌ3.8 Trillion
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐: ~โฌ2,300
๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐: India is surging at ~7.4% (vs EU's ~1.4%) driven by a massive demographic dividend. The rapidly emerging Indian middle class creates a new, hungry market for European automobiles and luxury goods. This deal essentially allows EU exporters to front-run the consumption boom of the next decade.
The agreement effectively links the world's largest single market (EU) with its fastest-growing major economy (India).
3๏ธโฃ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ฅ
The terms directly benefit sectors we are heavily allocated to, particularly ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ and ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ.
๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฌ:
๐ท ๐๐ข๐ง๐: Tariffs slashed from ๐๐๐% to ๐๐%.
๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ: Tariffs eliminated (๐๐% to ๐% over 5 years).
โ๏ธ ๐๐๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฒ: High tariffs of up to ๐๐% will be mostly eliminated.
๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐: Duties of ๐๐% removed, boosting access for EU drugmakers.
๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ๐ฌ: Tariffs on European cars entering India will drop from ~110% to 10% (for 250k vehicles/year).
๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฌ:
๐ ๐๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ฌ & ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ: Immediate ๐% tariffs (previously ~12%) giving India a massive competitive edge over other Asian exporters.
๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐ฌ & ๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ซ๐ฒ: Tariffs eliminated, benefiting India's large diamond polishing sector.
๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ: A new pact facilitating visas for Indian professionals constitutes a massive win for the services sector.
4๏ธโฃ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ
Our portfolio is mathematically positioned to capture this upside without needing to "react" or rebalance. We already hold significant exposure to both sides of this trade deal:
๐ช๐บ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐: ~30% combined allocation (across France, Spain, Italy...)
๐ฎ๐ณ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐: ~5% allocation including $INFY (Infosys Limited-ADR), $IBM (International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)), $HDB (HDFC Bank Ltd-ADR) .
What do you think of this new deal?
Best,
Dante... Show More
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Mon Mar 09 2026 20:21:43 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
