Simion Furdui @Inv1nctus: "𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮’𝙨 𝙍𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙞𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚: 𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 "𝙐𝙣𝙡𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙙"..."

United Kingdom

𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮’𝙨 𝙍𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙞𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚: 𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 "𝙐𝙣𝙡𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙙" 𝙏𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘼𝙡𝙥𝙝𝙖 𝙤𝙛 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 The hallmark of a great strategy isn't timing the market—it’s having the courage to buy high-quality companies when they are "unloved." In 2025, energy was the "dead money" trade. Today, it is crushing the broader market, up 36% YTD—outperforming the S&P 500 by 40 points. But this isn't a victory lap. While the war in Iran has grabbed the headlines, the real story is a fundamental shift in supply that could last for years. Here is why the energy bull run is just getting started. 𝟭. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙩: 𝙀𝙧𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙏𝙬𝙤 𝙔𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙋𝙖𝙞𝙣 The surge in energy has been so aggressive that the ratio of energy stocks to the S&P 500 has skyrocketed back to late 2023 levels. In less than four months, the sector has erased over two years of underperformance. • The Catalyst: Initially, it was accelerating economic growth (ISM Manufacturing) and a lack of bearish supply. • The War Factor: The conflict in Iran turned a steady climb into a vertical spike. With the Strait of Hormuz handling 25% of seaborne oil, the "risk premium" is now firmly priced in. 𝟮. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙩 𝘽𝙪𝙡𝙡 𝘾𝙖𝙨𝙚: 𝘿𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙊𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝘿𝙧𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 Here is what the mainstream media misses: even with oil in the $90s, U.S. producers are not rushing to drill more. • The Dallas Fed Survey: Data shows that production indicators are flat. Large E&P companies (which dominate 80% of U.S. output) have shifted their focus from "growth at all costs" to free cash flow and shareholder returns. • Resource Depletion: The "Tier 1" easy-to-drill spots are dwindling. Companies are becoming more prudent because they have to be. • The Breakeven Floor: It now costs roughly $67/barrel to profitably drill a new well in the Permian. This rising floor acts as a natural support for oil prices; if prices dip below $67, supply will naturally contract. 𝟯. 𝙒𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙁𝙞𝙣𝙙 𝙑𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙚: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 "𝙏𝙬𝙤 𝘽𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙣" 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙮 I am not chasing momentum. Instead, I am waiting for the "peace headlines" to cause a temporary dip so I can buy from the panickers. I’m focused on two specific regions: A. The American Permian Basin This is the engine of U.S. growth. I prefer high-margin producers and "bottleneck" solvers. • Top Picks: Diamondback Energy , and Permian Resources . • The "Landlords": Texas Pacific Land and LandBridge offer unique exposure to acreage without the direct cost of drilling. B. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin Canada offers something the U.S. doesn't: Zero decline rates. * The Oil Sands Advantage: Once these massive surface mines are running, they stay productive for decades with low operating costs. • Top Picks: Canadian Natural Resources , Suncor 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙏𝙤𝙧𝙤 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙮: 𝘽𝙪𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 "𝙋𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙚" 𝘿𝙞𝙥 My strategy remains unchanged: Buy quality when it’s out of favor. 1. Don't Chase the War Spike: Buying energy when it’s on every news channel is high-risk. 2. Wait for the De-escalation: When a ceasefire is announced, the "risk premium" will fade, and "tourist" investors will sell. That is our entry point. 3. Focus on Alpha, Not Just Oil: Look for companies with strong buyback programs and growing dividends. In 2026, energy companies are acting more like "Value" tech than old-school commodity plays. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘽𝙤𝙩𝙩𝙤𝙢 𝙇𝙞𝙣𝙚: The "shale revolution" of infinite supply is over. We have entered an era of resource scarcity and capital discipline. Energy isn't just a trade for 2026—it’s a cornerstone for the next decade. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $GOLD $BTC

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.