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The Santa Claus Rally is this period where the stock market tends to rise during the final 5 trading days of December and the first 2 days of January.
It is a 7-day window first documented by the Stock Traderβs Almanac in 1972. So itβs really more of a New Year Rally so to speak. We just got used to, in the last few years, that it starts already in November. π
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns during this period approximately 78% of the time, with an average gain of 1.3%. The Nasdaq has shown even stronger seasonality, averaging around 1.8β2.2% over the same stretch. For 2025, this window opens on 24 December (Christmas Eve, typically a half-day) and closes on 3 January.
There are a few reasons that are likely triggers: year-end portfolio rebalancing, institutional holiday absences reducing selling pressure, bonus-driven retail buying, and general seasonal optimism. While magnitude variesβranging from flat to occasional 4β5% surgesβthe rally remains one of the marketβs most consistent short-term patterns.
There is no guarantee of a Christmas Rally of course, but it could start as soon as today afternoon if inflation data show signs of continued cooling.
Thank you for following my page and kindly leave me a like so I know what content to focus on. π₯π
Carrot Cake ππ
$NSDQ100$SPX500$BTC$NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)
Disclaimer: I generated the below image with AI.... Show More
I think (hope) that the mood will become more euphoric towards mid/late December. Many second-tier companies have catch-up potential, and I think we will see a lot more here.... Show More
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Sat Jan 17 2026 21:40:16 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
