Dear copiers:
ᴍᴏɴᴛʜʟʏ ʀᴇᴘᴏʀᴛ
All data as of yesterday's close.
𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 +𝟏𝟐.𝟗𝟖% ✅
𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏 +𝟖.𝟏𝟗% ✅
𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 +𝟒.𝟒𝟗% ✅
𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟯 +𝟭𝟲.𝟱𝟱% ✅
𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 +𝟰.𝟵𝟬% ✅
2025 YTD +31.34% ✅
versus $SPX500 +14.00%
Benchmark outperform +17.34% 🚀🚀🚀
𝕻𝖗𝖔𝖋𝖎𝖙𝖘 𝖘𝖎𝖓𝖈𝖊 𝖎𝖓𝖈𝖊𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖔𝖓 +78.45%
100% 𝓰𝓻𝓮𝓮𝓷 𝔂𝓮𝓪𝓻𝓼 🎯
𝘾𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 309
Followers 8,200
𝘼𝙐𝙈 475,880.- USD
October 𝘼𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝙎𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙚 4
Estimated Dividend Yield 1.40%
Total Number of Assets 60
Average Anual Return +14.91%
Track Record over 5 years
Podium of YTD performers in our portfolio.
🥇 $SYM (Symbotic Inc) +221.73%
🥈 $STX.US (Seagate Technology PLC) +202.87%
🥉 $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) +166.98%
💼 Equity Portfolio breakdown:
- Healthcare 34.72%
- Technology 22.72%
- Financial Services 14.63%
- Consumer Cyclical 13.19%
- Basic Materials 6.10%
- Consumer Defensive 3.23%
- Industrials 2.65%
- Energy 2.07%
- Commercial Services 0.59%
- Cash 0.10%
𝕄𝕒𝕣𝕜𝕖𝕥𝕤 𝕆𝕦𝕥𝕝𝕠𝕠𝕜
✅ Key Positive Drivers
1. Policy and macro backdrop improving.
The Federal Reserve in the U.S. appears to be moving toward a more favorable policy mix: recent commentary expects short-term rates to stay steady in December and potentially see cuts in the first half of 2026.
Globally, many economies show modest growth (not a hard landing) which supports risk assets.
Some strategists as $GS (Goldman Sachs Group Inc) now expect additional rate cuts, and they upgraded their equities stance.
2. Corporate earnings and structural growth themes
The structural “AI”/tech investment theme remains prominent.
Some analysts believe good earnings surprises still lie ahead given modest growth expectations (so upside surprise potential).
With neutral/under-owned positioning in some markets, there is room for flow re-entry. For example, strategists mention investor “skepticism” being a bullish contrarian signal.
3. Valuations and market momentum
Some markets already at or near all-time highs, but valuations in some sectors are considered stretched — though this doesn’t preclude further gains.
The momentum from Q3 2025 has been fairly broad (U.S. small cap, broad indices) which gives some lift into year-end.
⚠️ Major Risks & Headwinds
High valuations and limited margin for error
In U.S. equity markets, valuations are elevated: e.g., some analysts say the market is at ~3% premium historically, meaning upside is more constrained and downside risk greater.
As the Vanguard Group warns: while the economy might improve, many of the structural growth stories are already “priced in” (especially in tech).
Growth/inflation/policy uncertainty
Growth is likely to be modest: for example, one outlook forecast ~2.0% growth for the U.S., ~0.9% for the Eurozone in 2025.
Inflation remains sticky; central banks may hesitate to cut rates or may even raise them if inflation resurfaces — which would hurt equities.
Geopolitical/trade risks remain (tariffs, supply-chain disruptions) which could spook markets.
Air-pockets / concentration risk
The tech/AI concentration is significant; if the narrative disappoints (e.g., slower monetisation), market corrections could happen.
Wikipedia
Given the “all-time highs” and positive sentiment, any negative surprise may trigger sharper pull-backs than in more cautious markets.
📊 What to Expect & Stepping Stones for the Remainder of 2025
Here’s a tentative scenario for how things might play out:
Late 2025 (Q4):
Markets may grind higher, supported by policy tailwinds, earnings surprises, and structural themes like AI.
But gains may be more modest than in earlier years; the premium valuations imply that upside will likely come with increased volatility.
Sector rotation may pick up: from growth/mega-cap tech to more cyclicals, financials, maybe value, if interest rates begin to come down.
For example, one outlook sees the U.S. market broadly reaching new highs but warns of “no margin for error”.
Early 2026 and beyond:
If central banks begin cutting rates and inflation comes under control, we could see a stronger equity phase.
Conversely, if inflation reignites or growth disappoints, a correction becomes more likely. The structural themes (AI, productivity gains) might then enter a more mature phase.
Have a nice day!
David... Show More
