Tobias Reily @orbitalnewt: "𝗠𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 👇👇👇🌍🔗🤖 I..."

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𝗠𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 👇👇👇🌍🔗🤖 I honestly feel we are nearing one of the most pivotal stages of this crypto cycle, and it has much less to do with the usual four year narrative and much more to do with liquidity. Truthfully, I was expecting the four year cycle to deliver a strong move in October and November. It did not happen, and I can admit now that I was a bit naïve to assume it had to repeat just because it did in the past. We barely have a handful of cycles to base that idea on. Here are some of the main reasons I continue to hold and DCA the alts I believe in even though sentiment has been brutal lately. 𝑾𝒂𝒔 𝒊𝒕 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒂 𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒓 𝒃𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒚𝒄𝒍𝒆? People talk about the four year cycle like it is some magical rule, but if you look back properly, the big moves in crypto lined up almost perfectly with changes in liquidity. Whenever liquidity expanded, crypto exploded. Whenever it dried up, the market struggled. The only reason it looked like a four year pattern before is because that is how long those liquidity shifts happened to take. Has this cycle simply taken longer because the stimulus from covid was absolutely massive and took extra time to unwind? 𝑨 𝒔𝒊𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒐 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕: The repo market sounds complicated but it really is not. 💧 Banks give the Fed safe collateral like government bonds. 💧 The Fed gives them cash for a very short time. 💧 They later return the cash with a small amount of interest. During covid, the system was flooded with money and a lot of it basically got "stored" in the repo market. Over the last couple of years, that huge pool has been drained as the Fed tightened. Interestingly, the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market aligned with the top of the repo pool, and Bitcoin started trending up as that liquidity leaked back into markets. Now Repo Liquidity is near zero. That is a major moment. When the liquidity buffer is gone and the economy is starting to soften, the direction usually flips toward easing and eventually more liquidity. Crypto tends to be one of the first places that reacts to that. 𝑾𝒉𝒚 𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒌𝒔 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒍𝒊𝒌𝒆𝒍𝒚: A few things are lining up. 🟢 Inflation has come down a lot from the peaks. 🟢 Job data and growth are starting to show cracks. 🟢 Prolonged high rates will eventually break parts of the economy, and the Fed knows easing must follow. The Fed used the repo market to tighten longer than expected. They cannot do that anymore. As conditions soften, markets usually start pricing in rate cuts and liquidity returning before the Fed officially confirms anything. 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑭𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒊𝒓 𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒕𝒐𝒐: There is also a change in Fed leadership coming in 2026. Whoever steps in will be dealing with a high debt environment and political pressure to support growth. That normally results in a more dovish approach. Markets will not wait until the day the new chair arrives. They will price in the expectation of easier policy well ahead of time, and that can be very bullish for risk assets like crypto. 𝑨𝒍𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒔 𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒌 𝒂𝒘𝒇𝒖𝒍… 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒊𝒔 𝒖𝒔𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒕𝒐𝒎𝒔 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎: Altcoins have been absolutely hammered against Bitcoin. Dominance around 60% is high. Most alt charts don't look good lately. As painful as it is, this is usually what you see near the end of an altcoin bear phase. It is very similar to past cycles where alts looked dead right before they started outperforming again. You've seen the feed, it's filled with negativity and FUD. I've been here years and I recognise the signs of capitulation and anger within the crypto markets. If Bitcoin keeps moving up on renewed liquidity, I do not expect dominance to stay this high. Even a move back toward 50% will produce big altcoin returns. Historically, that kind of shift has produced some really strong returns and I think we are closer to that than most people realise. Indeed it is hard to realise it, until it happens! 𝑴𝒚 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒈𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒘𝒂𝒓𝒅: The drained repo market, the likely move into monetary easing, the expected shift toward a more dovish Fed into 2026, and the extreme weakness in altcoins are the main reasons I am staying positioned. I am continuing to dollar cost average into the projects I believe have real potential and I am comfortable holding through this period. When we eventually get into the greed phase of the market, I will start derisking and taking profits. I am not claiming to know exactly how things will play out. Nobody does. These are simply the reasons why I am confident sticking to my plan and why I think the next chapters for crypto, especially altcoins, could be a lot more positive than people expect right now. Thanks for reading. $BTC $ETH $XRP $NSDQ100 $HBAR

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