๐ฏโฏ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฝ๐๐ต๐ผ๐
After a 2-week rollercoaster dominated by tariff threats, a US government shutdown, and fresh sanctions on Russian major oil producers, markets remain volatile but fairly optimistic. My biggest holding $EWU (iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF) has fared well: the FTSEโฏ100 hit a record high as energy stocks rallied, so EWU has gained, continues paying out a solid dividend and diversified the portfolio away from U.S. risk. Hereโs a quick rundown of whatโs driving markets and how weโre positioned.
๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ ๐ป๐ผ๐ถ๐๐ฒ
Markets wobbled when Trump threatened a โmassive increase of tariffsโ on Chinese imports after Beijing played its โrareโearth exportsโ card. The S&P 500 sank ~2.7 % in a day and volatility spiked, but cooler heads should prevail. China still dominates the rareโearth supply (see attached infographic) and doesnโt want to disrupt the market for them too much. Our tech/consumer holdings, e.g. MSFT, $GOOG (Alphabet), $AAPL (Apple), BABA, AMZN, could see shortโterm chop but the longโterm narratives (AI, cloud, eโcommerce) continue to drive those names higher for now.
๐ฆ๐ต๐๐๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต
The US government has been closed since October 1, furloughing roughly 900โฏk workers and delaying key data releases. Oxford Economics estimates the shutdown shaves 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points off GDP each week. Markets usually shrug off these standoffs (not sure they should), and futures are still pricing in an October rate cut. Lower rates would be a tailwind for growth names, smaller businesses, and any industries with a key reliance on loans.
๐ข๐ถ๐น ๐๐๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ & ๐๐ง๐ฆ๐ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐๐
Fresh US sanctions on Russiaโs Rosneft and Lukoil sent Brent crude up about 5% and powered energy stocks higher, pushing the FTSEโฏ100 to an allโtime high. As I said above, thatโs good news for EWU, which is up on the rally, provides a decent dividend and diversifies the portfolio away from US-centric risk.
๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ & ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด
$WBD (Warner Bros Discovery Inc) turned down a second takeover bid from Paramount (around $ 24 per share), and the stock has continued to climb to a 3โyear high on hopes that a bigger offer will emerge. Freeport McMoRan (FCX) has also bounced back as the shares gained more than 3% after the miner beat Q3 earnings estimates. Higher copper prices more than offset production issues (the recovery play here may be done).
๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ
I remain cautiously optimistic. The macro backdrop and earnings are going in the right direction, but there are pockets of concern and the AIโinvestment boom hasnโt yet translated into material profits. Thatโs why Iโm keeping a healthy cash buffer and have diversified into lowerโvolatility names. This way we can participate in upside while still being ready for opportunities when they arise.... Show More
Once again, markets seem more optimistic than the actual conditions would justify.... Show More
.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Sat Jan 24 2026 06:19:31 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
