FundManagerZech
๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐—ณ ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ป ๐—š๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€ ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—™๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ฒ? - ๐—ง๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฆ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด TL;DR: FOMO in investing is real, but donโ€™t confuse luck with competence. Missing out isnโ€™t your fault if the success wasnโ€™t built on solid ground. ๐ŸŒŸ ๐ŸŽถ ๐—ง๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฆ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜, ๐—”๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ-๐—›๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ผ, ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—™๐—ข๐— ๐—ข In "Anti-Hero," Taylor Swift sings, "Itโ€™s me, hi, Iโ€™m the problem, itโ€™s me." This line struck me pretty hardโ€”especially because my wife is a Swiftie, and her songs are always on repeat at home. But beyond the music, this lyric resonates deeply with investing. When you feel FOMO about othersโ€™ gains, itโ€™s easy to blame yourself for missing out. But sometimes, what looks like success is just luck disguised as competence. Are you chasing fleeting trends or building a strategy that lasts? ๐Ÿค” ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜€: ๐—Ÿ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐˜ƒ๐˜€. ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ In my last post of 2024, I expressed optimism about our stock picks. That view hasnโ€™t changed. As we step into 2025, Iโ€™ve been reviewing fund letters from professionals I admireโ€”people whoโ€™ve built careers at the biggest institutions, like Bridgewater, and have had 80%-plus years. Some run macro models reviewed by major banks and hedge funds, and even share their insights on YouTube. Here are the numbers from the returns theyโ€™ve shared so far: -14.76% +13-15% (still awaiting confirmation) +8.32% All below $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) $SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)) These arenโ€™t amateursโ€”theyโ€™re seasoned pros. Yet, if they posted these returns on eToro, they would likely lose most of their copiers. Why? Because the game of managing expectations is almost as hard as managing money. These pros have advantages most of us donโ€™t: resources, teams, and strategies tested by the best minds in finance. But even with all of that, this game is hard. Itโ€™s hard for everyone, pros and amateurs alike. And thatโ€™s why itโ€™s essential to separate luck from competenceโ€”the difference between stumbling into success and actually understanding the long-term game. ๐Ÿ’ก ๐Ÿค” ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—Ÿ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ป: ๐——๐—ผ๐—ปโ€™๐˜ ๐—Ÿ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—™๐—ข๐— ๐—ข ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—น ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚ This week, I saw many people make money trading the new TRUMP token on $SOL (Solana) Solana. Some called it a sign of a president ready to embrace every use case, while Solana holders also benefited from the hype. But letโ€™s not forget Liberty Financial, another Trump-backed project, which flopped spectacularly despite his public endorsement (he even joined a Twitter Spaces for it). Hereโ€™s the kicker: I met people who made money trading the Trump meme tokenโ€”but had no idea Liberty Financial even existed. So, when they say, โ€œI knew Trumpโ€™s presidency would blow this up, bro!โ€ but they donโ€™t even know the history behind his other projects, what theyโ€™re really saying is: โ€œI got lucky, and Iโ€™m calling it skill.โ€ This game is hard. Anyone can get lucky once or twice, but true competence is rareโ€”and even when you have it, success isnโ€™t guaranteed in the short run. โš ๏ธ ๐Ÿงฑ ๐—–๐—น๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต๐˜: ๐—•๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฅ๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ, ๐—ก๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—ฆ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ Just as Taylor Swift admits, "Itโ€™s me, hi, Iโ€™m the problem," success begins with recognizing when weโ€™re letting FOMO cloud our judgment. The truth is, missing out isnโ€™t your fault when success is built on luck instead of solid foundations. Like the wise builder who chose rock over sand, focus on skill, patience, and strategy. In the end, thatโ€™s what truly endures. ๐ŸŒŸ
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