Pietari Laurila
United Arab Emirates
2m
ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 6 ᴏᴄᴛᴏʙᴇʀ 2025 Today’s dramatic resignation of Prime Minister of France Sébastien Lecornu — just hours after forming his cabinet — has rattled markets: the CAC 40 index dropped 2%, French 10-year yields rose, and the euro weakened vs. the dollar. At face value, this reinforces the narrative of French dysfunction and political risk. But when you zoom out, there’s a counterintuitive, longer-term case to be made that this could mark a pivot point, one that ultimately is good for growth and markets. Lecornu’s government lacked parliamentary clout from day one and was already facing mounting resistance. Its collapse signals to voters and elites that minor tweaks to the old Macron coalition won’t work. If this leads to snap elections, the incoming administration would implicitly carry more democratic legitimacy to push through reforms. The most likely beneficiary of new elections would be Jordan Bardella and the National Rally. While markets instinctively recoil from the prospect of a populist government, it is worth recalling recent precedents. Giorgia Meloni’s election in Italy was initially greeted with warnings of fiscal recklessness and instability, yet her government has largely pursued pragmatic, business-friendly policies and has maintained credibility with Brussels and bond investors alike. In the United States, Donald Trump’s rise triggered similar fears, but his administration oversaw a corporate tax cut, deregulation and policies that ultimately boosted equity markets. These examples illustrate a consistent pattern: populist leaders, once in power, often moderate their approach and embrace policies designed to support growth and reward investors. Bardella has already outlined measures that could surprise to the upside. Proposals to cut VAT would stimulate consumption, while targeted incentives for domestic manufacturing, energy independence and infrastructure could strengthen key sectors of the French economy. His party has also signalled an ambition to reduce bureaucratic obstacles and reshape the labour and welfare systems, which are long-standing sources of inefficiency. None of this will be straightforward, and markets will remain wary until clearer signals emerge. But the combination of political capital, public support and a willingness to break with orthodox approaches could allow a Bardella government to push through reforms that centrist administrations have consistently avoided. Thus, I’m not selling into this volatility — if anything, a deeper sell-off in French banks could turn into a compelling long-term entry point. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 YTD +33.7% 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 None 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.
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