Pierre Neuman @PierreN2023: "⚖️ REBALANCE — Staying Neutral..."

Belgium

⚖️ REBALANCE — Staying Neutral While Risks Build Under the Surface TL;DR: Model back to ~60/100 → upper Neutral We trimmed winners, rotated into laggards, kept 30% cash Macro risk remains elevated (80/100) → discipline unchanged ⸻ Today wasn’t about reacting to headlines. It was about aligning the portfolio with the signal. Recent geopolitical developments (Iran) have improved short-term sentiment — but the bigger picture hasn’t changed. 👉 Tactical improving 👉 Macro still flashing risk So we stay neutral — but active. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT (YTD) The strategy continues to deliver strong relative performance: • Our portfolio: +7.32% • $NSDQ100: -1.36% • $SPX500: -1.18% 👉 Outperformance vs major benchmarks remains the machine learning models objective. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📡 THE SIGNALS Tactical Regime Model: • Current: 60/100 → High Neutral • Driven by easing geopolitical tensions and short-term momentum Macro Stress Model: • Current: ~80/100 — Elevated Risk • Systemic fragility remains high beneath the surface 👉 Tactical tells us when to lean in or out 👉 Macro tells us how far we can go Right now: improving conditions, but fragile regime ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔄 APRIL REBALANCING: WHAT WE DID (DISCIPLINED ROTATION) We used strength to rebalance — not chase. Reduced / trimmed: • $GOOGL (Alphabet Inc Class A) — fully exited • $MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd) — trimmed after strong run • $PPFB.DE (iShares Physical Gold ETC) (Gold) — partial profit taking Added additional selective AI Buildout positions: • $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) • $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) • $STX Maintained: • ~30% cash • Core defensive exposure to real assets & diversified equities (defense & energy) 👉 No aggressive risk-on 👉 No panic de-risking 👉 Just measured rotation within a neutral regime ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 WHY WE STAY NEUTRAL Markets today are not fully pricing: • Persistent bond market stress • Structural fiscal imbalances • Elevated geopolitical uncertainty • Fragile liquidity conditions At the same time: • Headlines can turn positive quickly • Risk assets can continue grinding higher 👉 This creates a two-sided environment So we avoid extremes: • Not fully defensive • Not aggressively risk-on Just balanced, optional, adaptive ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛡️ THE FRAMEWORK This is exactly where machine learning adds value: • It prevents emotional overreaction • It forces disciplined execution • It keeps us aligned with probabilities, not narratives 👉 We don’t predict outcomes 👉 We manage exposure across regimes ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💬 YOUR TAKE Are markets underpricing systemic risk and we are experiencing a dead cat bounce… or is this the beginning of a true new leg higher? Curious how you’re positioning 👇 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔗 DIVE DEEPER • Strategy + how to copy: etoro.tw/4hLfPGA • Last Model upgrade: etoro.tw/48DwpF0 • Detailed Performance: bullaware.com/etoro/PierreN2023 • AlphaFlow Research Project: etoro.tw/4czefI1 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Signals trigger. Models adapt. We stay disciplined. Compounding through uncertainty — for the next 25 years, for my two little shareholders 👶🏻👶🏻 and everyone building alongside us 💚 — PierreN2023 Member of the eToro Quantitative Investment Program

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.