Alberto Poli
๐™ˆ๐™–๐™˜๐™ง๐™ค ๐™๐™ฅ๐™™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š ๐Ÿ“Š ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐™‹๐™ง๐™š๐™จ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ง๐™š: ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™.๐™Ž. ๐™…๐™ค๐™—๐™จ ๐˜ฟ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™–, ๐™– ๐™ˆ๐™ค๐™ง๐™š ๐™ƒ๐™–๐™ฌ๐™ ๐™ž๐™จ๐™ ๐™๐™š๐™™, ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐˜ผ๐™„ ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™˜๐™ ๐™จ ๐™‡๐™ค๐™จ๐™š ๐™ˆ๐™ค๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ข The latest trading session marked a sharp reversal in sentiment across global markets. The catalyst was a much stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, which forced investors to quickly reassess their interest rate expectations. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐™…๐™ค๐™—๐™จ ๐™๐™š๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ: ๐™.๐™Ž. ๐™€๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™š๐™ง ๐™๐™๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™€๐™ญ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ May Non-Farm Payrolls showed the creation of 172,000 new jobs, well above market estimates. Unemployment remained stable at 4.3%, while wages increased by 0.3% month-over-month. In other words, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than expected, giving the Federal Reserve fewer reasons to consider cutting interest rates. ๐Ÿฆ ๐™๐™š๐™™: ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐˜ฝ๐™š๐™œ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™‹๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐˜ผ๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š ๐™ƒ๐™ž๐™ ๐™š Following the release of the data, market participants started fully pricing in a rate hike by year-end. As a result: โ€ข Treasury yields moved sharply higher โ€ข The U.S. dollar strengthened โ€ข Expectations for near-term rate cuts declined โ€ข Increased pressure on rate-sensitive assets ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐™’๐™–๐™ก๐™ก ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™š๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™‹๐™–๐™ฎ๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™‹๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™š The reaction in equity markets was immediate: โ€ข Nasdaq 100: -5% โ€ข S&P 500: -2.9% โ€ข Semiconductor sector: more than 10% Leading the sell-off were Artificial Intelligence-related stocks, which had been the main drivers of the market rally in recent months. After an exceptional earnings season, many investors have begun to question whether valuations already reflect a large portion of future growth expectations. ๐Ÿค– ๐˜ผ๐™„ ๐™๐™š๐™ข๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐˜ฟ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™๐™๐™š๐™ข๐™š, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™Ž๐™š๐™ก๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ฎ ๐™„๐™จ ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™ง๐™š๐™–๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ Artificial Intelligence continues to attract record levels of investment, but markets are starting to distinguish between expectations and tangible results. Companies are increasing spending on infrastructure, data centers, and computing capacity, while workforce reductions continue across many software and digital business areas to help fund the race toward AI leadership. ๐Ÿ’ถ ๐™€๐™ช๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™š: ๐˜ผ๐™ก๐™ก ๐™€๐™ฎ๐™š๐™จ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™€๐˜พ๐˜ฝ Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation has risen to 3.2%, its highest level since 2023. Markets now view a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank as almost certain this week. More than the rate decision itself, investors will be focused on the comments from Christine Lagarde, which are likely to shape the direction of the euro and European markets. ๐Ÿ’ก ๐™’๐™๐™–๐™ฉ ๐˜ฟ๐™ค๐™š๐™จ ๐™๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐˜ฟ๐™–๐™ฎ ๐™๐™š๐™–๐™˜๐™ ๐™๐™จ? Markets are transitioning from a narrative centered on rate cuts to one driven by economic resilience and persistent inflation. Good news for the economy does not necessarily translate into good news for stock markets: if growth remains strong, central banks may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer than previously expected. And that is precisely the new balance investors are trying to price in. $NSDQ100 $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $EURUSD
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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