BabiPavli
@BabiPavli shared a post via Franci Cesar
Slovenia
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Franci Cesar
Slovenia
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๐Ÿงญ ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐’๐ฉ๐ข๐ซ๐ข๐ญ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ž๐ฎ๐ซ ๐“๐ข๐ฆ๐ž: ๐ƒ๐ž๐›๐ญ, ๐“๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐‘๐จ๐ฅ๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐œ๐จ๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐š ๐’๐ก๐ข๐Ÿ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐–๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ On May 16, 2025, Moodyโ€™s โ€” the last major credit rating agency holding out โ€” downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1. Not because something changed overnight. The debt trajectory has been clear for years. But because someone finally pulled the trigger. โ€œThe game-changer isnโ€™t the why. Itโ€™s that they did it. And it cannot be undone.โ€ ๐Ÿ“‰ The U.S. public debt is projected to surpass 180% of GDP by 2050, according to the CBO โ€” even without future shocks. The structural deficit is now the status quo. Trust in U.S. Treasuries, once the cornerstone of global finance, is eroding. A recent 20-year Treasury auction saw yields spike to 5.11%. Demand? Tepid. Confidence? Fractured. ๐Ÿ’ฌ This prompted a thoughtful exchange with a friend โ€” a sharp, historically grounded value investor. He questioned Bitcoinโ€™s legitimacy as an investment. Preferring productive assets like land, forests, and companies like Berkshire Hathaway, he challenged Bitcoinโ€™s entire premise. I listened. And then replied โ€” not as a crypto evangelist, but as someone open to the idea that we are moving into uncharted financial waters. And in uncharted waters, sometimes we need non-traditional tools. ๐Ÿ” 1. Bitcoin Has No Utility? Not in the industrial sense. But Bitcoinโ€™s monetary utility is its very strength. Itโ€™s scarce, decentralized, uncensorable โ€” with no counterparty risk. It doesnโ€™t aim to replace Visa or create yield. It exists outside a system increasingly shaped by intervention. Yes, criminals use it. But so do they use dollars and banks. Thatโ€™s a call for regulation, not rejection. ๐Ÿ’ฑ 2. Store of Value โ€” For Whom? In stable economies, Bitcoin may seem speculative. But in Argentina, Lebanon, or Venezuela, it is often the only reliable store of value. Itโ€™s portable, seizure-resistant, inflation-proof. Call it what it is: a sovereignty asset โ€” a last-resort store of value when institutions fail. โš–๏ธ 3. It Doesnโ€™t Generate Yield โ€” Neither Does Gold Neither do gold bars, reserve currencies, or art collections โ€” yet theyโ€™re in every serious portfolio. Bitcoin isnโ€™t here to create cash flow. Itโ€™s here to survive when cash flow collapses. As such, itโ€™s a hedge against systemic monetary failure โ€” not a growth play. ๐ŸŽฒ 4. Is Bitcoin Speculative? Yes โ€” So Was Tesla Buying farmland in the 90s was speculation. So was buying Nvidia in 2018. Bitcoin is high risk, but with asymmetric upside and growing resilience. It has survived bans, forks, crashes โ€” and itโ€™s still here. That means something. ๐Ÿ›๏ธ 5. The Real Crisis Isnโ€™t Just Debt โ€” Itโ€™s Trust Weโ€™re in a crisis of trust, not just economics. Trust in governments, central banks, even democracy is fraying. Thatโ€™s why an independent monetary system is compelling โ€” not because it's perfect, but because it exists beyond manipulation. Bitcoin doesnโ€™t promise growth. It promises optionality if the traditional system breaks. ๐Ÿง  My Friendโ€™s Rebuttal โ€” And Why I Agree (Partly) He reminded me: if governed well, fiat money works. The Fed and ECB managed the 2008 crisis and COVID impressively. True. But we both agreed: The risk today is not monetary โ€” itโ€™s human. The question is not whether we can print money โ€” itโ€™s who we trust to make that call. Bitcoin doesnโ€™t solve the problem. But it forces the debate. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Where Are We Now? Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high: $109,890, with 7 consecutive green weekly candles โ€” a rare streak. Gold is surging. Bond markets โ€” especially U.S. and Japan โ€” are flashing red. This isnโ€™t just a bull run. Itโ€™s a referendum on the fiat system. ๐Ÿงฉ Final Thought: Bitcoin Is Not the Answer โ€” But It's Part of the Question Bitcoin wonโ€™t fix inequality. It wonโ€™t build homes or solve climate change. But it challenges what we thought was unquestionable: What is money? Who gets to issue it? What happens when people stop believing? Whether you hold it or not, Bitcoin has already reshaped the conversation. And perhaps thatโ€™s its greatest value โ€” not as a savior, but as a mirror of our time. ๐Ÿ“ฌ Iโ€™m not here to preach. I welcome respectful disagreement. Investing isnโ€™t dogma โ€” itโ€™s learning, adapting, and preparing for what we donโ€™t yet understand. $BTC $SPX500 $DJ30 $NSDQ100 $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )
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